T he young Egyptian businessman Amr Al-Saeed, who founded the Cook Door restaurant in 1988, succeeded in turning it from a small restaurant in an Egyptian suburb to one of the best restaurants in Egypt and the Middle East, and to compete strongly in being No. 1 among the various chains of restaurants spread in Egypt, In terms of taste and service, exceeding customer expectations, and expanding worldwide through professional management and franchising system, according to the vision set by Amr El-Said, who is the founder of Cook Door. COOK DOOR Cook Door was founded in 1988 with Egyptian capital, with the aim of providing an Egyptian product that adheres to international standards, and competes with the products of international companies working in the field of restaurants, food and fast food. The first branch of the Cook Door chain of restaurants was established in Cairo, specifically in Safeer Square, and in recent years, dozens of branches began to spread in the various regions of Egypt, in addition to a number of branches outside the Arab Republic of Egypt, as there are branches in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, Libya, Cook is distinguished Role is that its menu includes all different types of meat, chicken, food or salads. What is unique to Cook Door from other restaurants is that it has its own bakery and a factory for the manufacture of all Cook Door products. Three decades have passed since the establishment of the first restaurant of the Cook Door chain, and now, after thirty years of hard work, the International Company for Food Industries (Cook Door) has become one of the largest Egyptian companies that use the latest technologies that keep pace with technological progress in the field of foods and fast food, in proportion to the enormity of the Production and its diversification according to international standards. In addition to the qualified cadres and competencies that we aim to meet the requirements of its customers with high speed, high quality and elegant style, which made it win the award for the best fast-food restaurant chain in Egypt in 2007, 2008 and 2009, and gain consumer confidence. Cook Door was famous for its "Super Crunchy" chicken sandwich and "French" potatoes, so from the beginning, it was able to offer its customers special dishes that deserve to be talked about with enthusiasm and passion such as: Cook Door's Z-Burger -one of the most important items in their menu-. (This Assessment was artificially made to focus on (Z-Burger) item among other items in Cook Door's menu. 1st Stage Forecasting Analysis: (10 Marks) You were one of those newly hired operations team members in Cook Door Management team. Your first task was to use all the possible techniques you know to forecast for the expected value of sales for Cook Door's Z-Burger. If you got the following Values: Year 2008* (World Financial Crisis) Sales in Number of Z-Burger Orders (00) 558 2009 599 2010 664 2011* 765 2012 722 2013 809 2014 1,010 2015 1,958 2016 1,008 2017 1,810 2018 2,340 2019 1,070 2020 1,900 2021 1,700 2022 ????? You were asked to conduct a forecasting analysis to get the potential sales value for the year 2022 using the following instructions: Depend on a 7-year moving average approach to get an averaged- forecasted Value. (a) Use Nave approach. (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) Use the following weights to get a weighted forecasted value. (0.2, 0.4, 0.3, 0.10), Interpret your distributions of weight with different years. Use exponential smoothing approach but he is slightly frustrated as he has to select among three levels of a (0.2 or 0.4) which depends mainly on the state of the market and the level of noise in data series that we have on hands. Compute MAD and MSE for the exponential smoothing reequipment. In your opinion which one seems the most appropriate and accurate approach of the previous four approaches & why? Mr. Mohamed Hassan the Sales Director of Cook Door in Great Cairo thinks that the sales of Cook Door are mainly related to certain variables; specifically, he defined one main variable which is Advertising (billboard appearance). As an operations manager, use regression analysis to formulate a model to be used in forecasting Cook Door's sales for the year 2022: Year 2008* (World Financial Crisis) Advertising Billboard Appearance 51 Sales in Number of Z-Burger orders (00) 558 2009 63 599 2010 44 664 2011* 23 765 2012 57 722 2013 39 809 2014 66 1,010 2015 53 1,958 2016 23 1,008 2017 49 1,810 2018 81 2,340 2019 35 1,070 2020 62 1,900 2021 50 1,700 2022 ????? 2nd Stage: Capacity Planning: Capacity Levels Analysis (10 Marks) (6 Marks) You have to use the results you had concluded using Exponential Smoothing Approach with an (a) value you decided to use, to plan our next stage with Capacity Decision Analysis if you know that the production line is designed to operate 10 hours a day. In addition, across the whole year, there will be no existence for days off per week but actually the factory of Cook Door at El Obour City will be closed for the last three days of each month for the year 2022 whose numbers of days will be 360 days. Cook Door has a burger production line called Z-Burge product line. This line was designed to produce 40 pieces of Z-Burger per Hour. However, the workers at Obour Factory do not work for the full 10 hours per day and they take four half an hour break every two & the first hour is spent for setting up the required tools & equipment. In addition, you as an operations specialist, advised them to lose an hour to spare some parts of the machine generating the Z-Burger. "For your concern, Obour factory usually produces 70,000 pieces of Z-Burger per year" Eng. Hend Sameh Said Now you have to compute the planned capacity levels as follows: (a) Designed Capacity level. (b) Effective capacity level. (c) Efficiency ratio. (d) Utilization ratio. (e) Which indicator are you going to use -Designed or Effective Capacity- to match with your forecasted sales using Exponential Smoothing in the 1st stage? Why? (f) Is it matching your findings in the 1st stage or there is a gap? If you have a demand matching gap, what kind of changes or actions would be taken by you to match the forecasted value you got in stage 1 using Exponential Smoothing Technique? Note: You can use a series of techniques such as changing working times (Shifts), adding a new product line or any further actions that you may consider (regardless of the cost variable). Capacity Analysis (Cycle Time) (4 Marks) Also, Cook Door provides healthy sandwiches for customers. They have two identical sandwich assembly lines. A customer first places an order, which takes 30 seconds. The order is then sent to one of the two assembly lines. Each assembly line has two workers and three operations: (1) assembly worker 1 retrieves and cuts the bread (45 seconds/sandwich), (2) assembly worker 2 adds ingredients and places the sandwich onto the toaster conveyor belt (60 seconds/sandwich), and (3) the toaster heats the sandwich (120 seconds/sandwich). Finally, another employee wraps the heated sandwich coming out of the toaster and delivers it to the customer (112.5 seconds/sandwich). Find the process cycle time. Bread Fill Toast 45 Order sec/sandwich 60 sec/sandwich 120 sec/sandwich Wrap 90 sec/sandwich Bread Fill 112.5 sec/sandwich Toast 45 sec/sandwich 60 sec/sandwich 120 sec/sandwich 3rd Stage: Facility Layout Planning: (6 Marks) Cook Door's management is planning to have a certain location in Sheikh Zayed city to establish their new branch in Great Cairo. They Arrange six departments in the store to minimize the material handling costs. Each department is 10 x 10 meters and the building is 30 meters long and 20 meters wide. The cost of moving one load between adjacent departments is estimated to be EGP 20. Moving a load between nonadjacent departments costs EGP 30. Kitchen Management Floor Delivery Purchasing Cleaning Departments (1) (2) (3) Kitchen 250 500 (4) (5) (6) 0 0 100 (1) Management (2) Floor (3) Delivery (4) Purchasing (5) Cleaning (6) Required: 1. Determine the space requirements 150 250 50 0 2. Develop an initial schematic diagram 3. Determine the cost of this layout 100 0 500 250 0 0 (1 Mark) (1 Mark) (2 Marks) 4. Try to improve the layout (Trial & Error or Sophisticated Software) (1 Mark) 5. Develop a plan to fit the shape of the building (1 Mark) 4th Stage: Managerial Advise (4 Marks) After reading the whole case, answer the following two equally-weighted questions: 1. In which quadrant Cook Door is positioned? (3 Marks) 2. Rank the three basic functions with respect to their importance in your Cook Door. (3 Marks) STRATEGIC TARGET STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE Uniquess Parceived by the Customer Low Cost Position OVERALL Industrywide DIFFERENTIATION COST LEADERSHIP Particular Segment Only STUCK IN THE MIDDLE Differentiation Focus FOCUS Cost Leadership Focus Best Wishes