TABLE 18-8 Analysis of Variance of Sales Changes Source of Variation Sum of Squares Advertising F-ratio 120 3.0a 3 Store size 88 2 44 1.1 Interaction 984 6 164 4.1b 12 40 Total b Mean Sum of Squares 360 Unexplained variation a Degrees of Freedom (df) 480 1,912 23 Significant at the .10 level. Significant at the .05 level. Cases for Part III Data Analysis CASE III-I The Vancouver Symphony Orchestra1 Daniel Gardiner and Charles Weinberg At an afternoon meeting at the Vancouver Symphony Orchestra (VSO) offices, three executives, concerned with the marketing of the VSO, were discussing some of the challenges they currently faced.2 Ed Oscapella: We've got to do something, and do it fast, to get out of this difficult situation. Time is running out of the 1987/88 season. Jane Corbett: From my point of view, I've got to find out who wants what: Do subscribers want something different than nonsubscribers? If so, what? We've got all this information that needs analyzing and I'm hoping it will be useful in marketing the 1987/88 season. E. Douglas Hughes: I've got to decide on an appropriate theme or themes to communicate to the segment(s) we go after. We've got to give the printers sufficient lead time to get our brochures out, so I need to know what to focus on in the promotion. Armed with the computer data from a recent audience survey completed January 6, 1987 (four weeks earlier), the three knew that they had to sift through all the information very carefully. Within two weeks, they had to come up with a set of specific and actionable recommendations. The VSO's Board had already voted to cancel many concerts in June so as to lower its deficit. All three agreed that perhaps their immediate task was to build ticket sales for the remaining four months of the 1986/87 season. The guest artist and concert schedule from February through June is shown in Marketing Research in Action III-1. During this time period, two subscription series were offered. The first was a six-concert \"Seagram Pops\" series. The second was a five-concert celebration series. In the prior year, a \"Musically Speaking\" series and \"Jubilee\" series were both offered. Background Situated midway between Asia Pacific countries and the United Kingdom and approximately 40 miles north of the United States, Vancouver is Canada's third largest city. Home to more than 1.3 million people, Vancouver is the largest metropolitan area in Western Canada and is an emerging center of international trade and investment. Vancouver is rated one of the five most beautiful cities in the world, and in addition to varied recreational and sports attractions, Vancouver has many cultural and theatrical attractions as well. These include 1 Ed Oscapella, Executive Director; Jane Corbett, Director of Marketing; and E. Douglas Hughes, Director of Communications for the Vancouver Symphony Orchestra. 2 The data for this case are available; see your instructor. 69 MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION III-1 VSO Guest Artist and Concert Schedule February-June 1987 Series Conductora Soloist Feb. 7, 9 CS#1 R. Barshai I. Kipnis, harpsichord Feb. 13 Recital Date V. Ashkenazy, piano Feb. 15, 16, 17 J#8 Feb. 19, 20, 21(2) Bal #2 R. Barshai C-L Lin, violin Feb. 24(2) School P. McCoppin K. Rudolph, pic., E. Volpe, hp. Feb. 27, 28, Mar. 2, 3 POP#2 S. Dankworth No soloists Mar. 8, 9, 10 J#9 H. Holliger Cond & ob soloist Mar. 12 Recital Mar. 14, 16 CS#2 Mar. 18 Benefit Concert P. N. Balet Vanc-Cantata Singers M. Perahia, piano G. Sebastion B. Tuckwell, hn M. J. Fox, T. Banks, B. Zarankin, piano/E. Northcott Mar. 19, 20, 21(2) Bal #3 E. Stafford Royal Winnipeg Ballet Mar. 24 SP Bal P. McCoppin R. Nureyev and Friends Mar. 29, 30, 31 J#10 Y. P. Tortelier W. Klien, piano April 3, 4, 6, 7 POP#3 R. Hayman The Cambridge Buskers April 6 Tea & Trumpets P. McCoppin E. Northcott, sop, O. Lowry, host April 12, 13, 14 J#11 K. Akiyama L. Lortie, piano April 18, 20 CS#3 T. Otaka A. de Larrocha, piano April 21 SP P. McCoppin Visions: Mission Andromeda Apr. 24, 25, 27, 28 POP#4 M. Miller No soloists May 3, 4, 5 J#12 R. Barshai Bach Choir: J. Coop, piano: M. Collins, sop; S. Graham, mezzo; G. Evans, tnr; D. Garrard, bass B. Buckley May 9, 11 CS#4 R. Barshai E. Mathis, sop May 22, 23, 25, 26 POP#5 J. Everly and Bach Choir S. Woods, sop/M. Paris, mezzo D. Eisler, tnr/B Hubbard, bari May 30, June 1 CS#5 K. Akiyama C. Parkening, guitar-May 30 Norbert Kraaft, guitar-June 1 May 31 F. Pops#3 P. McCoppin Jarvis Benoit Quartet June 5, 6, 8, 9 POP#6 K. Akiyama M. Martin, soprano; B. Zarankin, piano Y. Guilbert, piano a Rudolf Barshai is Music Director and Principal Conductor and Kazuyoshi Akiyama is Conductor Laureate of the VSO. SOURCE: VSO files. the Vancouver Museum, the Queen Elizabeth Playhouse, the Arts Club, the Vancouver Art Gallery, the Vancouver Opera Society, and the Vancouver Symphony Orchestra. The VSO is one of the oldest cultural institutions in Vancouver, with its inaugural concert held in 1897. Regular seasons were offered in the 1930s when the orchestra came under the patronage of Mrs. B. T. Rogers. The orchestra's original repertoire included mostly big band 70 music. Over the years, the repertoire expanded to reflect more classical and romantic symphonic works, changing in response to the tastes of the various musical directors. As well, the regular season was lengthened and the number of scheduled programs and series increased. The orchestra, among the 10 largest in North America, has been plagued with financial, managerial, and artistic problems over the past two years. Subscription revenue has steadily declined in the last five years, putting pressure on the symphony to emphasize sales of single tickets and to heavily promote each event. With 122 scheduled performances in the 1986/87 season, a 15 percent decrease in regular subscribers (to the \"Jubilee\" and \"Musically Speaking\" series), the sluggish economic climate in Vancouver post-Expo '86, and a deficit of $811,000, the Vancouver Symphony Orchestra faced an enormous challenge just to maintain the status quo, let alone reduce its deficit. While small consolation, symphony orchestras throughout North America were going through difficult times (Newsweek, January 5, 1987, pp. 54-56). In September 1986, the Oakland Symphony declared bankruptcy and closed its doors; others, such as the San Diego Symphony and the one in Halifax, Nova Scotia, had suspended operations for a season or more. The Chicago Symphony, despite playing to a 98 percent capacity, was able to pay back only 62 percent of its $20 million operating budget. On the other hand, the symphonies in Montreal and Hamilton were enjoying record attendance levels and renewed financial support. Decline in Attendance At one point in the 1970s, the VSO enjoyed the largest subscription base of any orchestra in North America. However, the number of subscribers has been steadily declining. In 1985/86, subscriptions dropped by 18 percent. In 1986/87, the decrease in subscriptions could approach 20 percent, for an overall decline since 1984/85 of over 30 percent. Plans were being made to revise the subscription packages for the 1987/88 season in order to reverse this trend. However, the program for the current season was set. Single-ticket sales had also been decreasing, but at a slower rate than subscriptions and were becoming relatively more important in terms of total attendance. They accounted for 36,701 tickets sold in the 1985/86 season. In 1984/85, regular subscribers accounted for 79 percent of the total attendance. However, the proportion of subscribers for 1986/87 was projected at only 70 percent of total attendance. The Free Concert One of the ways to offset declining revenues may be to focus on nonsubscribers. After a date to make a recording of the VSO was postponed, it was decided in early December that a \"free concert\" be given in order to obtain \"trial\" by the nonsubscriber group. This concert was held in the evening on Tuesday, January 6, 1987. People had to go to the VSO's administrative office located three miles away from the Orpheum Theater (where the VSO performed) to pick up tickets. After being heavily promoted on a local FM radio station, the concert was an immediate \"sellout\" with all 2,761 tickets distributed. So as to obtain information about the concertgoers in a cost-effective manner, a questionnaire was developed and given to audience members. Because of time constraints, an initial draft of the questionnaire was pretested only on VSO office employees. A photoreduced copy of the survey is shown in Marketing Research in Action III-2 along with relevant response MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION III-2 Audience Questionnaire VANCOUVER SYMPHONY Audience Questionnaire Dear Patron, We at the Vancouver Symphony Orchestra want very much to provide the best possible musical experience for our audiences and the Vancouver community as a whole. In our continuing efforts to improve our performances and make your concert-going as satisfying and enjoyable as possible, we ask that you take a little time to answer the following questions. Your opinions and suggestions are extremely important and will be most useful in helping us to evaluate our programs, as well as our manner of presentation. When you leave tonight's concert, please be so kind as to place the completed questionnaire in one of the special boxes located near the exits and the VSO Gift Shop. If you do not have time to complete it this evening, we would request that you mail it to us at your convenience. On behalf of the members of the orchestra and the staff, thank you very much for your assistance. Edward Philip Oscapella Executive Director Vancouver Symphony Orchestra 400 East Broadway, Vancouver, B.C., V5T 1X2875-1661 71 MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION III-2 (continued) 1.a Are you a subscriber (i.e., purchase series tickets) to the VSO? ___ Yes, currently 19% 1-1 ___ No, but formerly 29 1-2 ___ Never subscribed 51 1-3 2. Have you ever purchased tickets to an individual VSO event? ___ Yes, since September 1986 22% 2-1 ___ Yes, but only before September 1986 51 2-2 ___ No 26 2-3 3. Since September 1986, how many times have you attended a VSO performance? ___ I haven't attended a VSO performance since September 1986 56% 3-1 ___ Attended once 18 3-2 ___ Attended 2-3 times 12 3-3 ___ Attended 4-5 times 7 3-4 ___ Attended more than 5 times 5 3-5 4. If you have ever attended previous VSO performances, we would like to know why. Please indicate the THREE most important reasons from the list below. (1 Most Important, 2 Second-Most Important, 3 Third-Most Important). Write 1, 2, or 3 on the appropriate lines. i.b ii. iii. 42%a 19% 39% (4- ) ___I wanted to see and hear classical music performed live 2 16 81 (5- ) ___The VSO under Maestro Rudolf Barshai is an excellent orchestra 7 44 49 (6- ) ___I think the Orpheum is an excellent setting for great music 13 31 54 (7- ) ___The choice of music appealed to me 13 37 50 (8- ) ___I wanted to see famous guest artists and conductors Please list any additional reasons below: (9- ) ___ _________________________________________________________________________ (10- ) ___ _________________________________________________________________________ (11- ) ___ _________________________________________________________________________ 5. Overall, what is your rating of the VSO on the following characteristics? Put a checkmark on the appropriate lines. ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ Performance of Orchestra Guest Artists Music Selection Acoustics in Orpheum Prices of Tickets Convenience of Parking General Atmosphere of Orpheum Service from VTC-CBO EXCELLENT (4) 65%a 43 22 56 13 12 63 26 GOOD (3) 33% 53 59 39 46 41 34 57 FAIR (2) 1% 2 10 3 35 33 2 13 POOR (1) 0% 2 8 1 6 13 1 4 (12(13(14(15(16(17(18(19- ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) 6. Please give us your opinion about the amount of each type of music played by the VSO. ___ ___ ___ ___ 72 Classical (e.g., Bach, Mozart) 20th century music (e.g., Debussy, Stravinsky) Pops (e.g., Mantovani, Williams) Canadian (e.g., Schaeffer) TOO MUCH (3) 6%a 14 20 24 ABOUT RIGHT (2) 72% 71 62 60 TOO LITTLE (1) 22% 14 18 16 (20(21(22(23- ) ) ) ) MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION III-2 (continued) 7. Below are presented eight pairs of events characterized by reputation of performer, seating arrangements, and single ticket prices. Assuming everything else about each pair is identical, please check your preference in each case. International Performers & $20 price 44% a 56% vs. 24-1 24-2 New, Promising Performers & $8 price Orchestra & $20 price 26% 74% vs. 28-1 28-2 Balcony & $8 price Orchestra & $20 price 30 70 vs. 25-1 25-2 Balcony & $14 price International Performers & $20 price 63 37 vs. 29-1 29-2 New, Promising Performers & $14 price International Performers & $14 price 77 23 vs. 26-1 26-2 New, Promising Performers & $8 price Orchestra & $14 price 46 54 vs. 30-1 30-2 Balcony & $8 price International Performers & Balcony 33 67 vs. 27-1 27-2 New, Promising Performers & Orchestra International Performers & Orchestra 59 41 vs. 31-1 31-2 International Performers & Balcony 8. What concert times do you prefer? ___ Matinees (2:30 P.M.) 32-1 12%a ___ 7:30 P.M. 34 32-2 ___ 8:00 P.M. 55 32-3 ___ 8:30 P.M. 7 32-4 9. What day of the 18%a 33-1 21 33-2 27 33-3 17 33-4 17 33-5 25 33-6 32 33-7 week do you prefer to attend concerts? ___ Sunday ___ Monday ___ Tuesday ___ Wednesday ___ Thursday ___ Friday ___ Saturday 10. From where do you get most of your information about VSO events? ___ From VSO mailings 47%a 34-1 ___ From ads in daily newspapers (e.g., Sun, Province) 46 34-2 ___ From ads in community newspapers 3 34-3 ___ From radio ads 32 34-4 ___ From television ads 3 34-5 ___ From reviews and feature stories 10 34-6 word-of-mouth 9% ___ Otherplease specify 34-7 nonword-of-mouth 3 11. Which daily newspaper do you read most often? ___ Vancouver Sun 35-1 71%a ___ Province 24 35-2 ___ Globe and Mail 7 35-3 ___ Otherplease specify ________________________________________ 6 35-4 12. Are you 39%a 36-1 61 36-2 ___ Male ___ Female 73 MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION III-2 (continued) 13. To which age group do you belong? ___ Under 18 2%a 37-1 ___ 18-24 6 37-2 ___ 25-34 16 37-3 ___ 35-44 17 37-4 ___ 45-54 21 37-5 ___ 55-64 22 37-6 ___ 65 and over 19 37-7 14 Please specify your postal code V 15. If you prefer to purchase tickets to individual events (as opposed to subscription tickets), why is this so? Please indicate below. __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ 16. All things considered, what would it take to get you to attend VSO performances on a regular basis? __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________ 38 39 40 41 42 See EXHIBIT THANK YOU FOR YOUR COOPERATION IN COMPLETING THIS QUESTIONNAIRE, AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATRONAGE OF THE VANCOUVER SYMPHONY. When you leave tonight's concert, please place the completed questionnaire in one of the special boxes located near the exits and the VSO Gift Shop. If you do not have time to complete it this evening, we would request that you mail it to us at your convenience. Audience Survey c/o Vancouver Symphony Society 400 East Broadway Vancouver, B.C. VST 1X2 a b Percentages given in questionnaire are for all respondents. i most important; ii 2nd or 3rd most important; iii not ranked in top 3. frequencies for each question for the entire sample. Respondents had the choice of dropping off the instrument at various places in the Orpheum or mailing it in later. A total of 614 completed questionnaires from the 2,400 people actually in attendance were returned. Since almost everyone attended in groups of two or more, this was considered a good response rate by management. 74 The data from the survey is in a file called VSO. Marketing Research in Business III-3 provides a sequential listing of the variables in the file and each variable corresponds to a specific question in the survey. For example, SUBSCRBR is the first variable and corresponds to Question 1 on the questionnaire. POSTCOD5 is the last variable and refers to the sixth digit of the respondent's postal code as asked by Question MARKETING RESEARCH IN ACTION III-3 Variable Listing Variable Rec SUBSCRBR 1 INDPURCH 1 ATTEND Start End Variable Rec Start End 1 1 MATINEE 1 32 32 2 2 SVNTHRTY 1 33 33 1 3 3 EIGHT 1 34 34 LIVEMUS 1 4 4 EGHTHRTY 1 35 35 VSOGOOD 1 5 5 SUNDAY 1 36 36 ORPGOOD 1 6 6 MONDAY 1 37 37 CHOICE 1 7 7 TUESDAY 1 38 38 FAMOUS 1 8 8 WEDNESDAY 1 39 39 OTHER1 1 9 9 THURSDAY 1 40 40 OTHER2 1 10 10 FRIDAY 1 41 41 OTHER3 1 11 11 SATURDAY 1 42 42 ORCHSTRA 1 12 12 VSOMAIL 1 43 43 GUESTS 1 13 13 PAPERADS 1 44 44 SELETION 1 14 14 COMMPAPR 1 45 45 ACOUSTIC 1 15 15 RADIOADS 1 46 46 PRICES 1 16 16 TVADS 1 47 47 PARKING 1 17 17 STORIES 1 48 48 ATMSPERE 1 18 18 OTHRSRCE 1 49 49 SERVICE 1 19 19 VANCSUN 1 50 50 CLASICAL 1 20 20 PROVINCE 1 51 51 TWENTITH 1 21 21 GLBEMAIL 1 52 52 POPS 1 22 22 OTHRPAPR 1 53 53 CANADIAN 1 23 23 GENDER 1 54 54 PAIR1 1 24 24 AGEGROUP 1 55 55 PAIR2 1 25 25 POSTCOD1 1 56 56 PAIR3 1 26 26 POSTCOD2 1 57 57 PAIR4 1 27 27 POSTCOD3 1 58 58 PAIR5 1 28 28 POSTCOD4 1 59 59 PAIR6 1 29 29 POSTCOD5 1 60 60 PAIR7 1 30 30 RESPID 1 61 61 PAIR8 1 31 31 14. RESPID refers to respondent identification and was inserted after receiving the research instruments. It is to be noted that no quantitative analysis can readily be performed on Questions 15 and 16. Given all this information, Ed, Jane, and Doug sat down to analyze it and work on a report for the Board of Directors. They knew that any recommendation(s) they make must be supported by the data. Questions for Discussion 1. What are the strengths and weaknesses of this market research project? 2. What information can you derive from the data? State specifically the managerial questions you are hoping to resolve and how the data would help you. Make at least one specific recommendation based on the results of this research. 75 \f\f