Task: Analysis of macroeconomics, monetary policy, political factors & investment recommendations for the respective each regions below (analysis & graphs).

1. Australia 2. United States 3. Eurozone 4. Japan 5. China 6. Emerging Markets

Example:

Agenda Client Needs SAA Macro Outlook United States Eurozone Japan China Emerging Markets Equity Outlook Fixed Outlook TAA Requests Trade Is Key To The Eurozone, But Political Hurdles Perpetuate 'Political Uncertainty" is a phrase heard often and remains appropriate for the Eurozone NLC Asset management Macroeconomics Eurozone 2019 will be impacted by trade, as the Eurozone unemployment rate is lower than ever, Trade will be the defining factor for Europe for gap between non-euro and euro exports tightens however, this is not being translated in asset 2019, as it was for 2018. It is best to reassess 230000 20000 returns the Eurozone market in 12 months time when 210000 190000 18000 11.8 there's more certainty with trade deals and 170000 16000 10.8 external export demand. 150000 Brexit and Italy present significant uncertainty 130000 nenwrote 14000 11000 90000 twenties 12000 Monetary Policy 7000 910/2000 1/6/2002 101/2005 1706/2007 1/11/2009 10412012 1/08/2014 1/0212017 10000 A non-appreciating Euro, rise in wage growth, 1/12/2001 1/06/2004 1/12/2006 1/06/2009 1/12/2011 1/06/2014 1/12/2016 and lower unemployment may cause a rise in - Euro Exports to non-euro -Euro Exports CPI for 2019. - Euro Unemployment - Germany Unemployment Source: Europa Source : Bloomberg Europe is looking at a recession and an expansionary monetary policy will be adopted to Euro GDP Expected to grow marginally A Euro that no longer appreciates should attract foreign address this slowdown investors. However, the trade and political risks curtail any current growth and returns. Political Factors 0.5 1.3 The Italian populist government throws a wrench n the works in the EU macro outlook -0.5 Brexit only adds to this uncertainty. Likewise, the Catalan movement in Spain. -1 1.05 France is exposed to agriculture and rising -1.5 government debt 103/2009 1/05/2010 1/07/2011 1/09/2012 1/11/2013 1/01/2015 1/03/2016 1/05/2017 1/07/2018 -2 17/02/2017 17/05/2017 17/08/2017 IT/02/2018 17/05/2018 1768/20 Investment Recommendation FRA GDP - DEU GDP - ESP GDP ITA GDP Eurozone CPI YoY% - EURO to USD Source: Bloomberg Underweight in TAA, neutral in SAA Source: Bloomberg O O Agenda Client Needs SAA Macro Outlook United States Eurozone Japan China Emerging Markets Equity Outlook Fixed Outlook TAA Requests Japan Faces A Greying Populace And A Colossal Central Bank BOJ purchases may have insulated the market from synchronized slowdown NLC Asset management Macroeconomics Over the short term, BOJ assets exceed Japan's BOJ has announced policy to lower purchases of 10Y Nominal GDP bonds. This will result in a steeper yield curve. Ageing demographics. Declining population. 5400 Japan has potential to weather the 2019 5200 5000 0. 6 slowdown. 4800 04 Foreigner JPY stock investment is at $34.7 4600 02 billion, open for large sell-offs due to tech led 4400 sell-offs in the U.S. 4200 4000 Monetary Policy 2.5 3800 -0.2 5/02/2015 15/02/2016 15/02/2017 15/02/2018 -0.4 Interest rates continue to be at all time lows. Nominal GDP - BOJ Assets BOJ Balance Sheet is at $4.87 trillion, and burce: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg contains a portfolio of JPY equities. This is unconventional monetary policy and has helped 2019 is set to be the largest Govt budget in the nation's history and this stimulus can't last forever. However, it will assist the market Japan's ageing population means lower utilization, lower the share market. during the 2019 slowdown productivity, and lower gains for equity More BOJ purchases of JGBs. 30 Forecasted decline in BOJ purchase of 10Y 25 bonds will contribute to a steeper yield curve Political Factors Percentage of Population over 65 $15 FY2019 Govt budget is the largest ever at $932 billion Japan faces the least political risk of any major market Investment Recommendation 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Overweight (OW) in TAA. Neutral in SAA. Budget (% of GDP) CPI (YoY%) - USA Source: Bloomberg Source: United Nations