Tavana : COP-28 Novartis is a world leader in the research and development of products to protect and improve health and well-being. Novartis is considering the acquisition of an pesticide for the control of Lepidopteran insect pests that is in the later stages of development at Merck. Merck is interested in leaving the insecticide business to concentrate on its other efforts in pharmceuticals. Merck expects that the insecticide, with a trade name of Predator, will have EPA registration early in 2003 (i.e. there will be no sales in 2002). Novartis believes that this product will complement its product line and will gain a significant share of the Lepidopteran insect market over the next 8 years. The total insecticide market will be 455,000,000 kg in 2002 and it is expected to grow 2% per year. The Lepidopertan market is 35% of the total insecticide market. The first year (2003) sale price is $12.75 per lb. After that the price is expected to be $12.25 per lb for 4 years and then $11.75 for 3 years. Assuming registration is obtained early in 2003, Predator should gain a 5% share of the Lep market that year, 9% in 2004, 15% in 2005, 25%