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The accounts of 2,500 credit card customers out of a sample of 35,000 that were reviewed did not perform satisfactorily. The credit scores assigned to

The accounts of 2,500 credit card customers out of a sample of 35,000 that were reviewed did not perform satisfactorily. The credit scores assigned to these applicants when originally assessed had a mean of 70 and standard deviation of 8. The scores of the remaining customers had a mean of 85 and a standard deviation of 12. Assuming these distributions are approximately normal, if the cut-off score was revised upward to 80.

  1. Complete the following table:

Creditworthiness

High

Low

Mean credit score

85

70

Standard deviation of credit score

12

8

Probability of receiving credit (%)

Probability of being denied credit (%)

(ii) The original default rate on the sample of 35,000 card holders was extremely high at 7.14%. What impact would be setting the cut-off at 80 have on the default rate? Show calculations.

iii) Based on the credit evaluation process. Complete the following table and identify the Type I and Type II errors. All quadrants need to be identified.

Analysed credit quality

Actual credit quality

Good

Bad

Good

Bad

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