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The Cactus Land Company owns 10,000 acres of land in southeastern Arizona that may contain valuable uranium deposits. The company is faced with a decision
The Cactus Land Company owns 10,000 acres of land in southeastern Arizona that may contain valuable uranium deposits. The company is faced with a decision whether to explore extensively for uranium, to lease the land, or to sell the land. For each of these three alternatives, three states of nature may exist: 1, a large uranium deposit; 2, a small uranium deposit; 3, no uranium deposit. The possible profits for the various alternatives and the various states of nature are shown in the following table: STATES OF NATURE Decision Alternative 1: Large Uranium Deposit 2: Small Uranium Deposit 3: No Uranium Deposit Explore extensively $10 M $4 M -$0.5 M Lease land 5 M 2 M 0.75 M Sell land 1 M 1 M 1 M The Cactus Land Company has made (prior) subjective estimates concerning the probabilities of finding the various sizes of uranium deposits. These estimates are: P (1: Large uranium deposit) = 0.3 P (2: Small uranium deposit) = 0.3 P (3: No uranium deposit) = 0.4 (a) What decision alternative should the Cactus Land Company choose, assuming that a Bayes' decision procedure without data is employed? (b) The Cactus Land Company can have a geologic study
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