The ceiling of humanity: How many people will live in the world in 2100?, the process of statistics applied to population growth is explained.

After reading this you should identify with one of these arguments. Post an approach on the aspects discussed in this information. The world population is only four decades away from peaking, with 9.7 billion inhabitants, which is expected to be reached in the year 2064. That is one of the conclusions of a recent study published by The Lancet and prepared by the Institute of Metrics and University of Washington Health Assessment (IHME), funded by the Melinda and Bill Gates Foundation. From that moment on, there will be a drastic reduction in the population, with 8,800 million inhabitants being the figure estimated for the year 2100. A report that has received a lot of attention in the media but has been received with some skepticism in the international demographic community, in the words of Teresa Castro, demographer and research professor at the Institute of Economy, Geography and Demography of the CSIC, given that " methodologically making a population projection is easy, but rigorously collecting both current and present data is not within everyone's reach". Until now, the two international organizations that were usually in a position to predict international demographic behavior were the UN and the Vienna Demographic Institute. Both worked with official data, supplied by the statistical institutes of each country, an exercise that was not always easy to do in states with less solid infrastructures, such as those in Africa. Castro acknowledges that the trends highlighted in both the UN World Population Prospects (2019) report and this recent one published in The Lancet are the same: the world population will peak in a few decades, but the United Nations defends that it will take longer to do so, and shortly after the number of inhabitants that the planet will have will begin to fall. However, this scientist considers the behavior that the IHME study predicts for the fertility rate of African countries such as Niger, where the birth rate will fall from an average of 7 children per woman to just two, unrealistic. As for the list of most populous countries, both The Lancet and the UN predict that India will become the world leader in population volume, surpassing China, which will end the century as the third most populous country after being surpassed by Nigeria. Precisely, The Lancet study points out that the countries of sub-Saharan Africa will triple the number of their inhabitants in 2100 and by that date up to five countries of this continent will be in the list of the 10 most populous states: Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo , Ethiopia, Egypt and Tanzania. Spain will cut its population in half The three variables on which all population projections are based are fertility, mortality and migration, the latter being one of the most complicated to measure given that it depends almost entirely on the economic situation of each country. The IHME study argues that population reduction is based on women's access to contraceptive methods, which will strongly affect fertility, and the female population's access to education, which will change the demographic structure by incorporating women into the world of work in regions where until now they had a more domestic role. "There is a lot of obsession with the size of the population, but what is really important is its educational level, because in countries where there is no effective replacement rate of two children per woman, but where there is a high level of education, it is possible ensure pensions and the level of quality of life, what is truly important", concludes this expert. For Spain, The Lancet projection is that it will reduce its population by half by 2100, something "possible" for Castro given that if natural growth in our country is already negative and if the economic situation were bad, the population immigrant would only enter our country on their way to northern Europe. The UN also predicts a drop in the population in our country but much less pronounced. After the publication by The Lancet of this study, which according to Castro has not included any international demographer among the signatories, the community of scientists has written a letter for the scientific publication requesting that rigor be extreme on future occasions. of the data collection for the elaboration of the projection and that is open to be signed by the scientists until July 26.