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The current price of a non-dividend-paying stock is $50. Over the next six months it is expected to rise to $62.5 or fall to $40.

The current price of a non-dividend-paying stock is $50. Over the next six months it is expected to rise to $62.5 or fall to $40. Assume the risk-free rate is zero. What is the risk-neutral probability of that the stock price will be $62.5?

0.44

0.55

0.33

0.22

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