Question
The data below show the weekly average US gas price and domestic oil production for the prior week Week Average US Gas Price Prior Week
The data below show the weekly average US gas price and domestic oil production for the prior week
| Week | Average US Gas Price | Prior Week Domestic Oil Production |
| 3/22/2021 | 2.865 | 10900 |
| 3/29/2021 | 2.852 | 11000 |
| 4/5/2021 | 2.857 | 11100 |
| 4/12/2021 | 2.849 | 10900 |
| 4/19/2021 | 2.855 | 11000 |
| 4/26/2021 | 2.872 | 11000 |
| 5/3/2021 | 2.89 | 10900 |
| 5/10/2021 | 2.961 | 10900 |
| 5/17/2021 | 3.028 | 11000 |
| 5/24/2021 | 3.02 | 11000 |
| 5/31/2021 | 3.027 | 11000 |
| 6/7/2021 | 3.035 | 10800 |
| 6/14/2021 | 3.069 | 11000 |
| 6/21/2021 | 3.06 | 11200 |
| 6/28/2021 | 3.091 | 11100 |
| 7/5/2021 | 3.122 | 11100 |
| 7/12/2021 | 3.133 | 11300 |
| 7/19/2021 | 3.153 | 11400 |
| 7/26/2021 | 3.136 | 11400 |
| 8/2/2021 | 3.159 | 11200 |
| 8/9/2021 | 3.172 | 11200 |
| 8/16/2021 | 3.174 | 11300 |
| 8/23/2021 | 3.145 | 11400 |
| 8/30/2021 | 3.139 | 11400 |
| 9/6/2021 | 3.176 | 11500 |
| 9/13/2021 | 3.165 | 10000 |
| 9/20/2021 | 3.184 | 10100 |
| 9/27/2021 | 3.175 | 10600 |
| 10/4/2021 | 3.19 | 11100 |
| 10/11/2021 | 3.267 | 11300 |
| 10/18/2021 | 3.322 | 11400 |
| 10/25/2021 | 3.383 | 11300 |
| 11/1/2021 | 3.39 | 11300 |
| 11/8/2021 | 3.41 | 11500 |
| 11/15/2021 | 3.399 | 11500 |
| 11/22/2021 | 3.395 | 11400 |
| 11/29/2021 | 3.38 | 11500 |
| 12/6/2021 | 3.341 | 11600 |
| 12/13/2021 | 3.315 | 11700 |
| 12/20/2021 | 3.295 | 11700 |
| 12/27/2021 | 3.275 | 11600 |
| 1/3/2022 | 3.281 | 11800 |
| 1/10/2022 | 3.295 | 11800 |
| 1/17/2022 | 3.306 | 11700 |
| 1/24/2022 | 3.323 | 11700 |
| 1/31/2022 | 3.368 | 11600 |
| 2/7/2022 | 3.444 | 11500 |
| 2/14/2022 | 3.487 | 11600 |
| 2/21/2022 | 3.53 | 11600 |
| 2/28/2022 | 3.608 | 11600 |
| 3/7/2022 | 4.102 | 11600 |
| 3/14/2022 | 4.315 | 11600 |
| 3/21/2022 | 4.239 | 11600 |
- Compute a three-period moving average forecast for weekly gas price. Report your forecast along with your forecast for part b in a table
2. Determine the regression line for weekly gas prices explained by prior week domestic oil production. Report your regression line and compute the expected gas price for each week based on the oil production.
3. Make a graph with weeks on the x-axis and gas price on the y-axis. Plot the actual gas price and the forecasted values for the moving average and regression approaches.
4. Calculate the MAPE for both forecasts. Which forecast is more accurate?
5. What would explain the performance of the regression model? In other words, why did it perform well or not well compared to the moving average forecast?
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Project Management A Managerial Approach
Authors: Jack R. Meredith, Samuel J. Mantel Jr.
8th edition
470533021, 978-0470533024
