The discussion question is:

Emerson reported the results of a recent poll $($January $15)$ for the pending Texas Senatorial $2024$ election race. Assume this for those most likely to vote. Here are the following results:

Cruz $($R$)42\%$

Allred $($D$)40\%$

Assume all of this was with a $2\mathrm{.}6\%$ margin of error. What does this mean to you? Why is the comment of those most likely to vote important?