The "Economic Report to the President of the United States" included data on the amounts of manufacturers' new and unfilled orders in millions of dollars. Shown here are the figures for new orders over a 21-year period.

Use the charting tool in Excel to develop a regression model to fit the trend effects for the data. Use a linear model and then try a polynomial (order 2) model. Make sure the charts show the line formula and the r-squared value. Include both charts in your report. Then, answer the following question:

How well does either model fit the data? Which model should be used for forecasting? Explain using the relevant metrics.

Year

Total Number of New Orders

1

55,022

2

55,921

3

64,182

4

76,003

5

87,327

6

85,139

7

99,513

8

115,109

9

116,251

10

121,547

11

123,321

12

141,200

13

162,140

14

168,420

15

171,250

16

176,355

17

195,204

18

209,389

19

237,025

20

272,544

21

293,475