Question
The Federal Election Commission maintains data showing the voting age population, the number of registered voters, and the turnout for federal elections. The following table
The Federal Election Commission maintains data showing the voting age population, the number of registered voters, and the turnout for federal elections. The following table shows the national voter turnout as a percentage of the voting age population from 1972 to 1996 (The Wall Street Journal Almanac, 1998).
Voter Turnout | |||
Year | % Turnout | Year | % Turnout |
1972 | 55 | 1986 | 36 |
1974 | 38 | 1988 | 50 |
1976 | 54 | 1990 | 37 |
1978 | 37 | 1992 | 55 |
1980 | 53 | 1994 | 39 |
1982 | 40 | 1996 | 49 |
1984 | 53 |
|
|
Part (a): Use exponential smoothing to forecast this time series. Consider smoothing constants of a = 0.1 and 0.2. What is the forecast of the percentage of turnout in 1998? Part (b): Use the mean absolute deviation (MAD) to determine which smoothing constant provides the best forecast of voter turnout.
Step by Step Solution
There are 3 Steps involved in it
Step: 1
Get Instant Access to Expert-Tailored Solutions
See step-by-step solutions with expert insights and AI powered tools for academic success
Step: 2
Step: 3
Ace Your Homework with AI
Get the answers you need in no time with our AI-driven, step-by-step assistance
Get Started