The Federal Reserve tracks assets and liabilities of commercial banks in the United States.10 Consider monthly data on the amount of money (in billions of dollars) held in consumer loans at all commercial banks in the United States, beginning in January 2000 and ending in November 2008.

(a) Use statistical software to make a time series plot of these data.

(b) Describe the overall trend present in these data.

(c) Do these data exhibit a regular, repeating pattern (seasonal variation)? If so, describe the repeating pattern.

(d) Some time series exhibit cycles. Cycles are clear but irregular up-and-down movements that are not part of the overall trend or seasonal variation present in the time series. Does this time series contain any cycles? If so, describe the cycles by noting when each began and ended and if the cycle was a temporary peak or trough in the series.

Date,Loans

01/2000,504.3 02/2000,503.6 03/2000,504 04/2000,507.9 05/2000,511.2 06/2000,516.5 07/2000,519.1 08/2000,530.5 09/2000,534.5 10/2000,531.3 11/2000,537.9 12/2000,548.2 01/2001,551.4 02/2001,547.9 03/2001,542.5 04/2001,546.9 05/2001,552 06/2001,550 07/2001,548.7 08/2001,551.1 09/2001,553.2 10/2001,551.5 11/2001,561 12/2001,566.3 01/2002,566.9 02/2002,564.8 03/2002,558.6 04/2002,562.6 05/2002,567.5 06/2002,564.6 07/2002,559.2 08/2002,571.6 09/2002,582.6 10/2002,585.8 11/2002,588.4 12/2002,597.5 01/2003,597.1 02/2003,593.7 03/2003,584.9 04/2003,582.8 05/2003,593.3 06/2003,595.2 07/2003,595.1 08/2003,598.1 09/2003,603.2 10/2003,600.2 11/2003,631.3 12/2003,654.9 01/2004,664.6 02/2004,658.9 03/2004,652.5 04/2004,651.3 05/2004,654.4 06/2004,655.5 07/2004,683.7 08/2004,688.5 09/2004,695.9 10/2004,693.1 11/2004,691.5 12/2004,708.9 01/2005,717.4 02/2005,708.8 03/2005,703.5 04/2005,703.2 05/2005,699.3 06/2005,700.7 07/2005,705 08/2005,715.7 09/2005,722.5 10/2005,711.9 11/2005,714.5 12/2005,718.1 01/2006,723.6 02/2006,716.1 03/2006,716.5 04/2006,720.4 05/2006,728.5 06/2006,722.4 07/2006,715.2 08/2006,725.9 09/2006,729.8 10/2006,731.4 11/2006,738 12/2006,753.1 01/2007,762.1 02/2007,754.4 03/2007,741 04/2007,745.7 05/2007,750.4 06/2007,759.6 07/2007,766.7 08/2007,774.2 09/2007,786.1 10/2007,783.6 11/2007,796.3 12/2007,818.3 01/2008,828.6 02/2008,819.1 03/2008,812.2 04/2008,818.2 05/2008,822.8 06/2008,826.9 07/2008,833 08/2008,843.7 09/2008,854 10/2008,865.9 11/2008,876.7