Question
The focus of sales is on the eastern seaboard, California, the Southeast, and the south-central states, which have the greatest concentration of customers. Outside the
The focus of sales is on the eastern seaboard, California, the Southeast, and the south-central states, which have the greatest concentration of customers. Outside the United States, sales include a European market, a growing South American market, and developing markets in the Pacific Rim and China. The market is cyclical, but the different products and regions balance some of this, with just less than 30% of total sales in the spring and summer (in the United States), about 25% in the fall, and about 20% in the winter. Annual sales are approximately $180 million.
Use the following guidelines when creating forecasts:
Evaluate potential methods that align with your data.
Use the last 18 months as validation data with trend-based models.
Optimize parameters in trend-based models.
When using simple exponential smoothing, set = 0.05 and round the actual data for the first month to the nearest hundred to seed your forecast column.
For moving averages, use 3 months
Use the following table of yearly forecasted demand for seasonality indices
NORTH AMERICA | SOUTH AMERICA | EUROPE | PACIFIC | |
MOWERS | 95000 | 4500 | 11000 | 3700 |
INDUSTRY MOWERS | 87000 | 9000 | 255000 | 25000 |
INDUSTRY TRACTORS | 156000 | 43000 | 81000 | 16000 |
Use Microsoft Excel and Analytic Solver to assist in developing potential forecasting models for these data. Then, evaluate your models and create final forecasts for 2022 for each product family and region.
DATA- INDUSTRY MOWER TOTAL SALES
Month | NA | SA | Eur | Pac | World |
Jan-17 | 60000 | 571 | 13091 | 1045 | 74662 |
Feb-17 | 77184 | 611 | 17679 | 1111 | 96585 |
Mar-17 | 77885 | 658 | 22759 | 1068 | 102369 |
Apr-17 | 86190 | 778 | 27966 | 1237 | 116171 |
May-17 | 96117 | 886 | 27895 | 1313 | 126210 |
Jun-17 | 97143 | 882 | 30566 | 1176 | 129768 |
Jul-17 | 84757 | 848 | 29444 | 1359 | 116409 |
Aug-17 | 79804 | 735 | 28364 | 1238 | 110141 |
Sep-17 | 64800 | 657 | 28393 | 1215 | 95065 |
Oct-17 | 59307 | 595 | 24444 | 1154 | 85500 |
Nov-17 | 52157 | 553 | 18000 | 1262 | 71972 |
Dec-17 | 45049 | 462 | 12453 | 1386 | 59349 |
Jan-18 | 58627 | 553 | 12778 | 1443 | 73401 |
Feb-18 | 76200 | 615 | 18214 | 1515 | 96545 |
Mar-18 | 82871 | 658 | 23889 | 1373 | 108791 |
Apr-18 | 84904 | 784 | 29455 | 1442 | 116584 |
May-18 | 93100 | 846 | 29464 | 1215 | 124625 |
Jun-18 | 93000 | 838 | 27414 | 1333 | 122585 |
Jul-18 | 83048 | 763 | 27368 | 1415 | 112594 |
Aug-18 | 74854 | 694 | 27321 | 1296 | 104164 |
Sep-18 | 60769 | 625 | 29444 | 1402 | 92241 |
Oct-18 | 55619 | 610 | 23774 | 1468 | 81470 |
Nov-18 | 48155 | 571 | 17308 | 1351 | 67386 |
Dec-18 | 42647 | 512 | 12941 | 1389 | 57489 |
Jan-19 | 57885 | 537 | 10962 | 1509 | 70892 |
Feb-19 | 77647 | 595 | 15273 | 1402 | 94917 |
Mar-19 | 81845 | 659 | 20556 | 1524 | 104583 |
Apr-19 | 86095 | 756 | 26786 | 1574 | 115211 |
May-19 | 91776 | 878 | 24828 | 1468 | 118949 |
Jun-19 | 100680 | 825 | 24737 | 1560 | 127801 |
Jul-19 | 86190 | 756 | 24828 | 1441 | 113216 |
Aug-19 | 71887 | 714 | 25179 | 1545 | 99325 |
Sep-19 | 60000 | 651 | 24545 | 1667 | 86863 |
Oct-19 | 55566 | 643 | 19286 | 1698 | 77193 |
Nov-19 | 50857 | 619 | 15273 | 1810 | 68558 |
Dec-19 | 42596 | 548 | 9107 | 1731 | 53982 |
Jan-20 | 58095 | 581 | 8571 | 1887 | 69135 |
Feb-20 | 75566 | 614 | 13158 | 1845 | 91182 |
Mar-20 | 80286 | 622 | 19655 | 1923 | 102486 |
Apr-20 | 85140 | 727 | 25179 | 1981 | 113027 |
May-20 | 90093 | 826 | 23103 | 1810 | 115832 |
Jun-20 | 95472 | 783 | 24286 | 1942 | 122482 |
Jul-20 | 87308 | 681 | 24737 | 1961 | 114686 |
Aug-20 | 74476 | 646 | 26607 | 2000 | 103729 |
Sep-20 | 61698 | 625 | 22982 | 2075 | 87381 |
Oct-20 | 57238 | 617 | 16897 | 2019 | 76771 |
Nov-20 | 50673 | 587 | 13750 | 2095 | 67105 |
Dec-20 | 51238 | 591 | 7818 | 2150 | 61797 |
Jan-21 | 59712 | 563 | 7547 | 1852 | 69673 |
Feb-21 | 77961 | 571 | 13889 | 1743 | 94165 |
Mar-21 | 83725 | 625 | 18302 | 1892 | 104544 |
Apr-21 | 90297 | 723 | 25192 | 2037 | 118250 |
May-21 | 91143 | 848 | 24706 | 1887 | 118583 |
Jun-21 | 99320 | 792 | 25306 | 1944 | 127363 |
Jul-21 | 93922 | 745 | 27083 | 2170 | 123919 |
Aug-21 | 73143 | 739 | 26042 | 2037 | 101961 |
Sep-21 | 66699 | 667 | 26304 | 2018 | 95688 |
Oct-21 | 56476 | 660 | 22558 | 2072 | 81766 |
Nov-21 | 51068 | 625 | 14773 | 2182 | 68648 |
Dec-21 | 46893 | 608 | 6977 | 2035 | 56510 |
DATA- INDUSTRY MOWER TOTAL SALES
Month | NA | SA | Eur | Pac | World |
Jan-17 | 60000 | 571 | 13091 | 1045 | 74662 |
Feb-17 | 77184 | 611 | 17679 | 1111 | 96585 |
Mar-17 | 77885 | 658 | 22759 | 1068 | 102369 |
Apr-17 | 86190 | 778 | 27966 | 1237 | 116171 |
May-17 | 96117 | 886 | 27895 | 1313 | 126210 |
Jun-17 | 97143 | 882 | 30566 | 1176 | 129768 |
Jul-17 | 84757 | 848 | 29444 | 1359 | 116409 |
Aug-17 | 79804 | 735 | 28364 | 1238 | 110141 |
Sep-17 | 64800 | 657 | 28393 | 1215 | 95065 |
Oct-17 | 59307 | 595 | 24444 | 1154 | 85500 |
Nov-17 | 52157 | 553 | 18000 | 1262 | 71972 |
Dec-17 | 45049 | 462 | 12453 | 1386 | 59349 |
Jan-18 | 58627 | 553 | 12778 | 1443 | 73401 |
Feb-18 | 76200 | 615 | 18214 | 1515 | 96545 |
Mar-18 | 82871 | 658 | 23889 | 1373 | 108791 |
Apr-18 | 84904 | 784 | 29455 | 1442 | 116584 |
May-18 | 93100 | 846 | 29464 | 1215 | 124625 |
Jun-18 | 93000 | 838 | 27414 | 1333 | 122585 |
Jul-18 | 83048 | 763 | 27368 | 1415 | 112594 |
Aug-18 | 74854 | 694 | 27321 | 1296 | 104164 |
Sep-18 | 60769 | 625 | 29444 | 1402 | 92241 |
Oct-18 | 55619 | 610 | 23774 | 1468 | 81470 |
Nov-18 | 48155 | 571 | 17308 | 1351 | 67386 |
Dec-18 | 42647 | 512 | 12941 | 1389 | 57489 |
Jan-19 | 57885 | 537 | 10962 | 1509 | 70892 |
Feb-19 | 77647 | 595 | 15273 | 1402 | 94917 |
Mar-19 | 81845 | 659 | 20556 | 1524 | 104583 |
Apr-19 | 86095 | 756 | 26786 | 1574 | 115211 |
May-19 | 91776 | 878 | 24828 | 1468 | 118949 |
Jun-19 | 100680 | 825 | 24737 | 1560 | 127801 |
Jul-19 | 86190 | 756 | 24828 | 1441 | 113216 |
Aug-19 | 71887 | 714 | 25179 | 1545 | 99325 |
Sep-19 | 60000 | 651 | 24545 | 1667 | 86863 |
Oct-19 | 55566 | 643 | 19286 | 1698 | 77193 |
Nov-19 | 50857 | 619 | 15273 | 1810 | 68558 |
Dec-19 | 42596 | 548 | 9107 | 1731 | 53982 |
Jan-20 | 58095 | 581 | 8571 | 1887 | 69135 |
Feb-20 | 75566 | 614 | 13158 | 1845 | 91182 |
Mar-20 | 80286 | 622 | 19655 | 1923 | 102486 |
Apr-20 | 85140 | 727 | 25179 | 1981 | 113027 |
May-20 | 90093 | 826 | 23103 | 1810 | 115832 |
Jun-20 | 95472 | 783 | 24286 | 1942 | 122482 |
Jul-20 | 87308 | 681 | 24737 | 1961 | 114686 |
Aug-20 | 74476 | 646 | 26607 | 2000 | 103729 |
Sep-20 | 61698 | 625 | 22982 | 2075 | 87381 |
Oct-20 | 57238 | 617 | 16897 | 2019 | 76771 |
Nov-20 | 50673 | 587 | 13750 | 2095 | 67105 |
Dec-20 | 51238 | 591 | 7818 | 2150 | 61797 |
Jan-21 | 59712 | 563 | 7547 | 1852 | 69673 |
Feb-21 | 77961 | 571 | 13889 | 1743 | 94165 |
Mar-21 | 83725 | 625 | 18302 | 1892 | 104544 |
Apr-21 | 90297 | 723 | 25192 | 2037 | 118250 |
May-21 | 91143 | 848 | 24706 | 1887 | 118583 |
Jun-21 | 99320 | 792 | 25306 | 1944 | 127363 |
Jul-21 | 93922 | 745 | 27083 | 2170 | 123919 |
Aug-21 | 73143 | 739 | 26042 | 2037 | 101961 |
Sep-21 | 66699 | 667 | 26304 | 2018 | 95688 |
Oct-21 | 56476 | 660 | 22558 | 2072 | 81766 |
Nov-21 | 51068 | 625 | 14773 | 2182 | 68648 |
Dec-21 | 46893 | 608 | 6977 | 2035 | 56510 |
DATA - INDUSTRY TRACTOR TOTAL SALES
Month | NA | SA | Eur | Pac | World |
Jan-17 | 8143 | 984 | 5091 | 987 | 15205 |
Feb-17 | 8592 | 1051 | 5310 | 1090 | 16042 |
Mar-17 | 8630 | 1016 | 6071 | 1127 | 16844 |
Apr-17 | 8947 | 1027 | 5856 | 1209 | 17039 |
May-17 | 8442 | 1057 | 5273 | 1221 | 15992 |
Jun-17 | 7500 | 1019 | 5315 | 1327 | 15161 |
Jul-17 | 6145 | 977 | 7170 | 1324 | 15616 |
Aug-17 | 5882 | 1057 | 5926 | 1268 | 14132 |
Sep-17 | 5595 | 1086 | 6075 | 1209 | 13965 |
Oct-17 | 5233 | 1045 | 6321 | 1168 | 13766 |
Nov-17 | 4494 | 1078 | 8381 | 1127 | 15080 |
Dec-17 | 3913 | 1029 | 7944 | 1085 | 13971 |
Jan-18 | 5938 | 1172 | 5688 | 1185 | 13983 |
Feb-18 | 6633 | 1273 | 7037 | 1286 | 16228 |
Mar-18 | 7327 | 1423 | 6981 | 1286 | 17017 |
Apr-18 | 8077 | 1612 | 7500 | 1346 | 18535 |
May-18 | 7830 | 1728 | 6571 | 1388 | 17517 |
Jun-18 | 7103 | 1815 | 6990 | 1449 | 17357 |
Jul-18 | 6239 | 1776 | 6667 | 1490 | 16172 |
Aug-18 | 6036 | 1685 | 6762 | 1449 | 15932 |
Sep-18 | 5664 | 1679 | 6635 | 1394 | 15371 |
Oct-18 | 5345 | 1618 | 6311 | 1256 | 14529 |
Nov-18 | 4831 | 1564 | 6476 | 1214 | 14084 |
Dec-18 | 4454 | 1522 | 6250 | 1171 | 13396 |
Jan-19 | 5299 | 1835 | 5922 | 1208 | 14264 |
Feb-19 | 6529 | 2115 | 6667 | 1214 | 16524 |
Mar-19 | 7120 | 2202 | 7228 | 1256 | 17806 |
Apr-19 | 7619 | 2151 | 8200 | 1311 | 19280 |
May-19 | 8387 | 2214 | 7941 | 1415 | 19957 |
Jun-19 | 8110 | 2278 | 7921 | 1520 | 19828 |
Jul-19 | 7752 | 2100 | 7677 | 1675 | 19203 |
Aug-19 | 6894 | 2128 | 7200 | 1584 | 17806 |
Sep-19 | 6015 | 2367 | 6735 | 1527 | 16644 |
Oct-19 | 5368 | 2211 | 6495 | 1422 | 15495 |
Nov-19 | 4964 | 2483 | 6061 | 1366 | 14873 |
Dec-19 | 4444 | 1986 | 5816 | 1262 | 13509 |
Jan-20 | 5000 | 2257 | 5051 | 1373 | 13680 |
Feb-20 | 6284 | 2353 | 6082 | 1436 | 16155 |
Mar-20 | 7785 | 2457 | 6327 | 1478 | 18046 |
Apr-20 | 9934 | 2517 | 7604 | 1512 | 21568 |
May-20 | 10645 | 2612 | 7789 | 1642 | 22688 |
Jun-20 | 9491 | 2749 | 7347 | 1667 | 21254 |
Jul-20 | 9182 | 2887 | 6979 | 1733 | 20781 |
Aug-20 | 8528 | 2833 | 6489 | 1700 | 19550 |
Sep-20 | 8293 | 2789 | 6316 | 1642 | 19039 |
Oct-20 | 8221 | 2765 | 5833 | 1576 | 18395 |
Nov-20 | 7470 | 2746 | 5789 | 1493 | 17498 |
Dec-20 | 6509 | 2534 | 5591 | 1450 | 16084 |
Jan-21 | 7267 | 2635 | 5106 | 1010 | 16019 |
Feb-21 | 8807 | 2703 | 5474 | 1045 | 18028 |
Mar-21 | 10168 | 2795 | 6022 | 1106 | 20089 |
Apr-21 | 11044 | 2997 | 6064 | 1150 | 21254 |
May-21 | 12120 | 3131 | 6344 | 1244 | 22839 |
Jun-21 | 13459 | 3311 | 6593 | 1357 | 24720 |
Jul-21 | 13048 | 3390 | 6304 | 1421 | 24164 |
Aug-21 | 12275 | 3277 | 6064 | 1263 | 22879 |
Sep-21 | 11347 | 3232 | 5789 | 1173 | 21542 |
Oct-21 | 10667 | 3131 | 5699 | 1128 | 20625 |
Nov-21 | 10459 | 3087 | 5604 | 974 | 20125 |
Dec-21 | 10082 | 3030 | 5444 | 979 | 19536 |
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