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The following is a partial printout from a Regression routine run on quarterly seasonal data with a trend in order to obtain a regression forecasting

The following is a partial printout from a Regression routine run on quarterly seasonal data with a trend in order to obtain a regression forecasting model. There were 20 consecutive quarters in the original time series. Time period 1 corresponds to a 1st quarter value. The trend variable is t, and the 3 dummy variables representing Quarters 1, 2 and 3 are Qtr1, Qtr2, and Qtr3 resp. Use the printout below to forecast the value of the time series for time period 23. Round your forecast to 1 decimal place.

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.988

R Square

0.976

Adjusted R Square

0.968

Standard Error

0.217

Observations

20

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

4

21.248

5.312

156.235

0.000

Residual

15

0.516

0.034

Total

19

21.282

Variables

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Intercept

5.7

0.162

37.347

0.000

5.711

6.426

t

0.6

0.012

12.023

0.000

0.119

0.172

Qtr1

-0.6

0.157

-8.657

0.000

-1.710

-1.017

Qtr2

-2.9

0.155

-13.112

0.000

-2.375

-1.692

Qtr3

0.3

0.154

-1.981

0.073

-0.643

0.034

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