Question
The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature: Assume that the probabilities for
The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature:
Assume that the probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = 0.65, P(s2) = 0.15 P(s3) = 0.20.
Answer the questions below in a Word document or write out the answers and attach an image or .pdf file containing the answers. Alternatively, a completed Excel file may be used and attached (see attachedDecisionTreeTemplate). Be sure to specifically answer each question below in your submission and to show your work.
a. Construct a decision tree for this problem.
b. What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available?
c. What is the expected value for the decision strategy developed in part (b)?
d. Using the expected value approach, what is the recommended decision without perfect information? What is its expected value?
e. What is the expected value of perfect information?
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