The following two demand sets are to be used to test two different basic exponential smoothing models. The first

uses an $\backslash$alpha of $0\mathrm{.}1$ while the second uses an $\backslash$alpha of $0\mathrm{.}5.$

In both cases the model should be initialised with a beginning forecast of $50,$ that is the ESF forecast for Period $1$

made at the end of Period $0$ is $50$ units.

In each of the four cases $($two models on two demand sets$)$ compute the average forecast error and MAD.

What do the results mean?

Note: Feel free to use Excel to solve this assignment if required.