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The General Ford Motors Corporation (GF Motors) is considering developing a new car design, the Trek, which is a conventional mid-size SUV design. GF
The General Ford Motors Corporation (GF Motors) is considering developing a new car design, the Trek, which is a conventional mid-size SUV design. GF Motors assumes the new car would generate sales for the next 10 years and would sell for $25,000 initially in the first year. Moreover, estimates for the design and development costs, first-year production costs, and first-year demand are given below. Minimum Most-Likely Maximum Design/Development Cost $4.1 billion $4.3 billion $4.5 billion First-Year Production Cost $17,600 $18,400 $18,800 First-Year Sales 75,000 100,000 120,000 Estimates for the Trek The production and selling price would rise with inflation (estimated to be 5% per year with a standard deviation of 1.5%). Demand in future years will be forecast to be equal to the previous year's demand with a standard deviation of 10% of the forecast; for example, if demand in the first year turns out to be 90,000, then we assume that demand in the second year is approximately 90,000 with a standard deviation of 10% of that forecast (i.e., 90,00010%-9,000). GF Motors uses a 10% rate in calculating the total NPV of the cash flows for the next 10 years when evaluating new projects. Developing a simulation spreadsheet model to show the average and standard deviation of the total NPV. Before you start building your simulation model, please set the following Run Preferences in Crystal Ball: Under Trials: Number of Trials to Run = 5,000 Under Sampling: Use Same Sequence of Random Numbers; Initial Seed Value: 999 Under Sampling: Sampling Method: Latin Hypercube Requirements of spreadsheet model format (follow the instructions below to avoid losing credits): Show the given parameters in data cells. Do NOT enter given parameters directly into equations or Crystal Ball. For full credit, answers must be based on the results of your simulation and the Crystal Ball chart(s) or graph(s) showing the numbers used to justify your answers must be pasted into your spreadsheet (use Copy Chart from the Edit menu of the forecast chart).
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