The goal of this individual assignment is to ensure that you have working skills in the use of decision trees and Monte Carlo analysis.

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Based on everything you have read this week and the Zoom session you attended (or watched via the recording link), or any other relevant reference that you located, please complete the following.

1. Pick and clearly describe (in about a paragraph) a situation (preferably but not necessarily in business) that requires a decision necessitating a decision tree with at least two branches, each branch having at least two sub-branches. In another paragraph explain and justify the structure of the decision tree you are using and briefly sketch the decision tree (you can invent the probability and impact numbers in the decision tree). Then determine the best decision dictated by your decision tree. You must show your calculations and explain how your decision follows from those calculations.
2. Discuss briefly (about a half to one page double-spaced) the industries that use Monte Carlo analysis, and explain in about a paragraph why and when Monte Carlo analysis is applicable (and when not). Then pick one industry and describe in a paragraph a simple situation in that industry in which Monte Carlo analysis could be applicable. Construct a model that captures that situation and run a Monte Carlo simulation on it (using Crystal Ball). Briefly explain how the simulation results would be used.

Submit the completed Parts 1 and 2 above to your assignment folder, and also submit the EXCEL file you used for your Crystal Ball simulation, with the simulation chart output clearly visible.