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The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier.
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent on the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit ( in thousands of dollars ) : State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s 1 s 2 s 3 Manufacture, d 1 - 2 0 4 0 1 0 0 Purchase, d 2 1 0 4 5 7 0 The state - of - nature probabilities are P ( s 1 ) = 0 . 4 0 , P ( s 2 ) = 0 . 4 0 , and P ( s 3 ) = 0 . 2 0 . Do not round your intermediate calculations. ( a ) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. Purchase component part ( b ) Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. Enter your answer in thousands dollars. For example, an answer of $ 2 0 0 thousands should be entered as 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 . Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand, as the additional information could be worth up to $ for Gorman. ( c ) A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable ( F ) or unfavorable ( U ) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P ( F | s 1 ) = 0 . 1 0 P ( U | s 1 ) = 0 . 9 0 P ( F | s 2 ) = 0 . 4 0 P ( U | s 2 ) = 0 . 6 0 P ( F | s 3 ) = 0 . 6 0 P ( U | s 3 ) = 0 . 4 0
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