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The government is contemplating to implement actions to prevent climate change. If no action is taken then climate change will happen with a probability of
The government is contemplating to implement actions to prevent climate change. If no action is taken then climate change will happen with a probability of 5%%. There is a probability of 100%-5% that there will be no climate change. We will not be able to tell if there is climate change until 62 years from today. In 62 years, we will know if there is climate change but it would be too late to do anything about it if climate change takes place. If there is climate change, then the world will suffer a loss of $284,795 a year forever starting in year 62 +1. Scientists say that we can prevent climate change for sure by reducing emissions of CO2 today. The cost of reducing emissions is $16,089 every year forever. Assuming the discount rate is 19.1%, what is the expected value doing nothing against climate change? (hint: you should enter a negative number)
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