The Greenville Textile Company is contemplating the future of one of its plants located in South Carolina. Three alternative decisions are being considered: (1) Expand the plant and produce lightweight, durable materials for possible sale to the military, a market with little foreign competition; (2) maintain the status quo at the plant, continuing production of textile goods that are subject to heavy foreign competition; or (3) sell the plant now. If one of the first two alternatives is chosen, the plant will still be sold at the end of the year. The amount of profit that could be earned by selling the plant in a year depends on foreign market conditions, including the status of a trade embargo bill in Congress. Currently, the probability of good foreign competitive conditions is estimated to be 0.7. The following payoff table describes this decision situation. Decision Good Conditions Poor Conditions Expand $ 800,000 $ 500,000 Maintain status quo 1,300,000 150,000 Sell now 320,000 320,000 a. Using the information given, construct a decision tree for this problem. Determine the expected monetary value (EMV) of each option and specify the optimal decision strategy. b. Compute the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) for this decision. c. Perform sensitivity analysis on the probability of good competitive conditions. That is, determine the best choice for the entire range of probabilities. d. The company has hired a consulting firm to provide a report on future political and market situations. The report will be positive (P) or negative (N), indicating either a good (g) or poor (p) future foreign competitive situation. The conditional probability of each report outcome, given each state of nature, is P(P | g) = 0.70 P(P | p) = 0.20 P(N | g) = 0.30 P(N | p) = 0.80 Determine the posterior probabilities by using Bayes Rule (e.g., determine P(g | P), and so on). e. Revise your decision tree to include the possibility of the consulting report. Use the probabilities determined above to compute the EMVs for the revised tree. What is the optimal decision strategy? What is the expected value of this strategy? f. What is the maximum fee that the company should pay for the consulting report? That is, what is the expected value of survey information (EVSI)