The hotel sector in Singapore has benefited from rising tourism numbers, with hotel room revenue for the six-month period gaining around nine per cent to S$1.94 billion. The Singapore Tourism Board (STB) is the main agency that tracks hotel occupancy rate. Moreover, STB needs ensure adequate supply of rooms in order for Singapore MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions) sector to grow. STB says that the tourism industry should benefit this year from a strong pipeline of MICE events. As the sector champion for the hotel industry, STB focuses on industry development, capability enhancement, and the regulation of hotels in Singapore.

Your company has been engaged as a consultant to a China-based boutique hotel chain to aid them in making business decision on whether they should setup their flagship hotel in Singapore by performing some data analysis. One of your team members has provided you with selected data extracted from STB's website for you to analyse (refer to the images attached below). It contains two key indicators:

? Paid Lettings (monthly)

o This refers to Room Nights paid for by hotel guests (rooms blocked or occupied multiplied by the number of nights each room is reserved or occupied in a month)

? Total Room Revenue ($ m)

o This refers to paid lettings multiplied by the hotel room rate per night and is expressed in millions.

Discuss which method you would use to forecast the monthly Paid Lettings in 2019 and which time period of data is relevant to the forecasting.

Year Month Paid Lettings\\ Total Room Revenue ( S m ) Jan 760, 737 139 . 1 Feb 567 , 530 121 . 4| Mar 821 , 402 161.9 Apr 734 , 095 143 . 4| May 774, 448 153.0 200' Jun 767 , 488 164. 21 Jul 823, 750 173 . 1 AUG 788 , 4 160. 01 Sep 728 , 634 149. 9 Oct 798 , 088 178 .7\\ Nov 762 , 012 171.9 Dec 718 , 090* 153.0 Jan 746 , 092 177.0 Feb 562 , 733 172.51 Mar 773 , 868 188. 2\\ Apr 720 , 178 185.5\\ May 725, 140 180.8 2008 Jun 709 , 148 178. 4| Jul 765 , 340 182.0 AUG 721 , 053 168 . 2 Sep 650, 783 197.3| Oct 756 , 991 182. 0 NOV 716 , 316 168 . 2 Dec 669 , 233 145.8 Jan 613 , 003 127.9| Feb 622 , 687 128. 1 Mar 679 , 657 135 . 2 Apr 624 , 196 118.5 May 625 , 366 116.01 2009 Jun 681 , 479 122. 9| Jul 764 , 832\\ 134 . 1 750, 861 130. 6 any Sep 730 , 557 148 . 7\\ Oct 811 , 589 148 . 1 NOV 816 , 603\\ 160.5 Dec 797, 526\\ 141.5| Jan 826 , 869 150. 91 Feb 756 , 782 144. 7 Mar 915 , 233 177 .4 Apr 855 , 158 171.9 May 899 , 716 181 . 31 2010 Jun 890 , 0 186. 7 Jul 989, 769 201 . 3| ALIE 989 , 034 211 . 2 Sep 933 , 305 218 . 1 Oct 1 , 020 , 277 219.5 NOV 1 , 025 , 043 223.3| Dec 1 , 005 , 051 215.9 Jan 985 , 769\\ 220. 7\\\f\f