The Iowa Wolves are scheduled to play against the Maine Red Claws in an upcoming game in the National Basketball Assoclation (NBA) G League. Because a player in the NBA G League is still developing his skills, the number of points he scores in a game can vary substantially. Develop a spreadsheet model that simulates the points scored by each team. Assume that each player's point production can be represented as an integer uniform variable with the ranges provided in the following table. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) (a) Consider the points scored by the lowa Wolves team. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) What is the average of points scored? What is the standard deviation? What is the shape of the distribution? uniform bell-shaped skewed left skewed right (d) Before making a final decision on the production quantity, management wants an analysis of a more aggressive 70,000 -unit production quantity and a more conservative 50,000 -unit production quantity. Run your simulation with these two production quantities. (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round your answers to the nearest integer.) What is the mean profit (in dollars) associated with 50,000 units? $ What is the mean profit (in dollars) associated with 70,000 units? (e) In addition to mean profit, what other factors should FTC consider in determining a production quantity? (Select all that apply.) probability of a shortage probability of a loss stock market profit standard deviation gut feeling Major League Baseball's World Series is a maximum of seven games, with the winner being the first team to win four games. Assume that the Attanta Braves and the Minnesota Twins are playing in the World Series and that the first two games are to be played in Atlanta, the next three games at the Twins' ballpark, and the last two games, if necessary, back in Atlanta. Taking into account the projected starting pitchers for each game and the home field advantage, suppose the probabilities of Atlanta winning each game are as follows. Construct a simulation model in which whether Atlanta wins or loses each game if 7 random variable. Use the model to answer the following questions. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) (a) What is the average number of games played regardless of winnen (Round your answer to one decimal place.) games (b) What is the probability that the Atlanta Braves win the World Series? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) What is the average point differential between the Iowa Wolves and Maine Red Claws? What is the standard deviation in the point differential? What is the shape of the point differential distribution? uniform bell-shaped skewed left skewed right (d) What is the probability that the Iowa Wolves scores more points than the Maine Red Claws? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) (e) The coach of the fowa Wolves feels that they are the underdog and is considering a riskier game strategy. The effect of this strategy is that the range of each Wolves player's point production increases symmetrically so that the new range is [0, originat upper bound + originat lower bound]. For example, Wolves player 1 's range with the risky strategy is [0,25]. How does the new strategy affect the average and standard deviation of the Wolves point total? (Round your answers to fwo decimal places.) average points standard deviation points What is the new probability of the fowa Wolves scoring more points than the Maine Red Claws? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit (in \$) per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $46 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated in the following table. (a) Compute profit (in \$) per unit for the base-case scenario. s /unit. (b) Compute profit (in \$) per unit for the worst-case scenario. s /unit (c) Compute profit (in \$) per unit for the best-case scenario. s /unit (d) Construct a simulation model to estimate the mean profit (in \$) per unit. (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round your answer to two decimal places.) $ (e) Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios? Simulation will provide of an unacceptably tow profit. of the profit per unit values which can then be used to find (f) Management believes the project may not be sustainable if the profit per unit is less than $5. Use simulation to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5. (Round your answer to three decimal places.) Strassel Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is available, and Bud Strassel, the president and owner of Strassel Investors, believes if he purchases and develops this property, it can then be sold for $15$,000. The current property owner has asked for bids and stated that the property will be sold for the highest bid in excess of $100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids for the property. Strassel does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed between $100,000 and $145,000. (a) What is the estimate of the probability Strassel will be able to obtain the property using a bid of 5125,000 ? (Use at least 5,000 trials. Round your answer three decimal places.) (b) How much does Strassel need to bid to be assured of obtaining the property? $125,000 $135,000 $145,000 (c) Use the simulation model to compute the profit for each trial of the simulation run (noting that Strassel's profit is $0 if he does not win the bid). With maximization of profit as Strassel's objective, use simulation to evaluate Strassel's bid alternatives of $125,000,$135,000, or $145,000. What is the expected profit (in dollars) for each bid alternative? (Use at feast 5,000 trials. Round your answers to the nearest dollar.) expected profit for a bid of $125,000 expected profit for a bid of $135,000 s expected profit for a bid of $145,000 s What is the recommended bid? s $125,000 $135,000 $145,000 In preparing for the upcoming holiday season, Fresh Toy Company (FTC) designed a new doll called The Dougie that teaches children how to dance. The fixed cost to produce the doll is $100,000. The variable cost, which includes material, labor, and shipping costs, is $29 per doll. During the holiday selling season, FTC will sell the dolls for $37 each. If FTC overproduces the dolls, the excess dolls will be sold in January through a distributor who has agreed to pay FTC $10 per doll. Demand for new toys during the holiday selling season is extremely uncertain. Forecasts are for expected sales of 60,000 dolls with a standard deviation of 15,000 . The normal probability distribution is assumed to be a good description of the demand. FTC has tentatively decided to produce 60,000 units (the same as average demand), but it wants to conduct an analysis regarding this production quantity before finalizing the decision. (a) Determine the equation for computing FIC's profit for given values of the relevant parameters (e.g., demand, production quantity, etc.). Using this equation, compute FTC's profit (in dollars) when realized demand is equal to 60,000 (the average demand). $ (b) Modeling demand as a normal random variable with a mean of 60,000 and a standard deviation of 15,000, simulate the sales of the Dougie doll using a production quantity of 60,000 units. What is the estimate of the average profit (in dollars) associated with the production quantity of 60,000 dolls? (Use at. least 1,000 trials. Round your answer to the nearest integer.) s (c) Compare the average profit estimated by simulation in part (b) to the profit calculation in part (a). The average profit from the simulation is greater than the profit computed in part (a) The average profit from the simulation is less than the profit computed in part (a). Explain why they differ. Profit is limited by the production quantity, so higher than average demand does not correspond to higher profits, but lower demand will lead to lower profits. Since the demand is being modeled as a normal random variable, the sample mean profit will always tend to be lower than the true mean profit. Profit is limited by the production quantity, so lower than average demand does not correspond to lower profits, but higher demand will lead to higher profits. Since the demand is being modeled as a normal random variable, the sample mean profit will always tend to be higher than the true mean profit. (d) Before making a final decision on the production quantity, management wants an analysis of a more aggressive 70,000 -unit production quantity and a more conservative 50,000-unit production quantity. Run your simulation with these two production quantities. (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round your answers to the nearest integer.) What is the mean profit (in dollars) associated with 50,000 units? $ (b) Consider the points scored by the Maine Red Claws. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) What is the average of points scored? What is the standard deviation? What is the shape of the distribution? uniform bell-shaped skewed left skewed right (c) Let Point Differential = Iowa Wolves points - Maine Red Claw points. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) What is the average point differential befween the fowa Wolves and Maine Red Claws? What is the standard deviation in the point differentian? What is the shape of the point differential distribution? uniform bell-shiped skewed left semed right (d) What is the probubility that the fowa Wolves scores more points than the Maine Red Claws? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) (e) The coach of the lowa Wolves feels that they are the underdog and is considering a riskier game strategy. The effect of this strategy is that the range of each Wolves player's point production increases symmetrically so that the new range is (0, original upper bound + original tower bound). For exampte, Wolves player I's range with the risky strategy is [0,25]. How does the new strategy affect the average and standard deviation of the Wolves point total? (Round your answers to two decimal places.) average points standard deviation point: The Iowa Wolves are scheduled to play against the Maine Red Claws in an upcoming game in the National Basketball Assoclation (NBA) G League. Because a player in the NBA G League is still developing his skills, the number of points he scores in a game can vary substantially. Develop a spreadsheet model that simulates the points scored by each team. Assume that each player's point production can be represented as an integer uniform variable with the ranges provided in the following table. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) (a) Consider the points scored by the lowa Wolves team. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) What is the average of points scored? What is the standard deviation? What is the shape of the distribution? uniform bell-shaped skewed left skewed right (d) Before making a final decision on the production quantity, management wants an analysis of a more aggressive 70,000 -unit production quantity and a more conservative 50,000 -unit production quantity. Run your simulation with these two production quantities. (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round your answers to the nearest integer.) What is the mean profit (in dollars) associated with 50,000 units? $ What is the mean profit (in dollars) associated with 70,000 units? (e) In addition to mean profit, what other factors should FTC consider in determining a production quantity? (Select all that apply.) probability of a shortage probability of a loss stock market profit standard deviation gut feeling Major League Baseball's World Series is a maximum of seven games, with the winner being the first team to win four games. Assume that the Attanta Braves and the Minnesota Twins are playing in the World Series and that the first two games are to be played in Atlanta, the next three games at the Twins' ballpark, and the last two games, if necessary, back in Atlanta. Taking into account the projected starting pitchers for each game and the home field advantage, suppose the probabilities of Atlanta winning each game are as follows. Construct a simulation model in which whether Atlanta wins or loses each game if 7 random variable. Use the model to answer the following questions. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) (a) What is the average number of games played regardless of winnen (Round your answer to one decimal place.) games (b) What is the probability that the Atlanta Braves win the World Series? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) What is the average point differential between the Iowa Wolves and Maine Red Claws? What is the standard deviation in the point differential? What is the shape of the point differential distribution? uniform bell-shaped skewed left skewed right (d) What is the probability that the Iowa Wolves scores more points than the Maine Red Claws? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) (e) The coach of the fowa Wolves feels that they are the underdog and is considering a riskier game strategy. The effect of this strategy is that the range of each Wolves player's point production increases symmetrically so that the new range is [0, originat upper bound + originat lower bound]. For example, Wolves player 1 's range with the risky strategy is [0,25]. How does the new strategy affect the average and standard deviation of the Wolves point total? (Round your answers to fwo decimal places.) average points standard deviation points What is the new probability of the fowa Wolves scoring more points than the Maine Red Claws? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit (in \$) per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $46 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated in the following table. (a) Compute profit (in \$) per unit for the base-case scenario. s /unit. (b) Compute profit (in \$) per unit for the worst-case scenario. s /unit (c) Compute profit (in \$) per unit for the best-case scenario. s /unit (d) Construct a simulation model to estimate the mean profit (in \$) per unit. (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round your answer to two decimal places.) $ (e) Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios? Simulation will provide of an unacceptably tow profit. of the profit per unit values which can then be used to find (f) Management believes the project may not be sustainable if the profit per unit is less than $5. Use simulation to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5. (Round your answer to three decimal places.) Strassel Investors buys real estate, develops it, and resells it for a profit. A new property is available, and Bud Strassel, the president and owner of Strassel Investors, believes if he purchases and develops this property, it can then be sold for $15$,000. The current property owner has asked for bids and stated that the property will be sold for the highest bid in excess of $100,000. Two competitors will be submitting bids for the property. Strassel does not know what the competitors will bid, but he assumes for planning purposes that the amount bid by each competitor will be uniformly distributed between $100,000 and $145,000. (a) What is the estimate of the probability Strassel will be able to obtain the property using a bid of 5125,000 ? (Use at least 5,000 trials. Round your answer three decimal places.) (b) How much does Strassel need to bid to be assured of obtaining the property? $125,000 $135,000 $145,000 (c) Use the simulation model to compute the profit for each trial of the simulation run (noting that Strassel's profit is $0 if he does not win the bid). With maximization of profit as Strassel's objective, use simulation to evaluate Strassel's bid alternatives of $125,000,$135,000, or $145,000. What is the expected profit (in dollars) for each bid alternative? (Use at feast 5,000 trials. Round your answers to the nearest dollar.) expected profit for a bid of $125,000 expected profit for a bid of $135,000 s expected profit for a bid of $145,000 s What is the recommended bid? s $125,000 $135,000 $145,000 In preparing for the upcoming holiday season, Fresh Toy Company (FTC) designed a new doll called The Dougie that teaches children how to dance. The fixed cost to produce the doll is $100,000. The variable cost, which includes material, labor, and shipping costs, is $29 per doll. During the holiday selling season, FTC will sell the dolls for $37 each. If FTC overproduces the dolls, the excess dolls will be sold in January through a distributor who has agreed to pay FTC $10 per doll. Demand for new toys during the holiday selling season is extremely uncertain. Forecasts are for expected sales of 60,000 dolls with a standard deviation of 15,000 . The normal probability distribution is assumed to be a good description of the demand. FTC has tentatively decided to produce 60,000 units (the same as average demand), but it wants to conduct an analysis regarding this production quantity before finalizing the decision. (a) Determine the equation for computing FIC's profit for given values of the relevant parameters (e.g., demand, production quantity, etc.). Using this equation, compute FTC's profit (in dollars) when realized demand is equal to 60,000 (the average demand). $ (b) Modeling demand as a normal random variable with a mean of 60,000 and a standard deviation of 15,000, simulate the sales of the Dougie doll using a production quantity of 60,000 units. What is the estimate of the average profit (in dollars) associated with the production quantity of 60,000 dolls? (Use at. least 1,000 trials. Round your answer to the nearest integer.) s (c) Compare the average profit estimated by simulation in part (b) to the profit calculation in part (a). The average profit from the simulation is greater than the profit computed in part (a) The average profit from the simulation is less than the profit computed in part (a). Explain why they differ. Profit is limited by the production quantity, so higher than average demand does not correspond to higher profits, but lower demand will lead to lower profits. Since the demand is being modeled as a normal random variable, the sample mean profit will always tend to be lower than the true mean profit. Profit is limited by the production quantity, so lower than average demand does not correspond to lower profits, but higher demand will lead to higher profits. Since the demand is being modeled as a normal random variable, the sample mean profit will always tend to be higher than the true mean profit. (d) Before making a final decision on the production quantity, management wants an analysis of a more aggressive 70,000 -unit production quantity and a more conservative 50,000-unit production quantity. Run your simulation with these two production quantities. (Use at least 1,000 trials. Round your answers to the nearest integer.) What is the mean profit (in dollars) associated with 50,000 units? $ (b) Consider the points scored by the Maine Red Claws. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) What is the average of points scored? What is the standard deviation? What is the shape of the distribution? uniform bell-shaped skewed left skewed right (c) Let Point Differential = Iowa Wolves points - Maine Red Claw points. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) What is the average point differential befween the fowa Wolves and Maine Red Claws? What is the standard deviation in the point differentian? What is the shape of the point differential distribution? uniform bell-shiped skewed left semed right (d) What is the probubility that the fowa Wolves scores more points than the Maine Red Claws? (Round your answer to three decimal places.) (e) The coach of the lowa Wolves feels that they are the underdog and is considering a riskier game strategy. The effect of this strategy is that the range of each Wolves player's point production increases symmetrically so that the new range is (0, original upper bound + original tower bound). For exampte, Wolves player I's range with the risky strategy is [0,25]. How does the new strategy affect the average and standard deviation of the Wolves point total? (Round your answers to two decimal places.) average points standard deviation point