Question
The Karrie Restaurant is located in Portland Oregon. The restaurant has just completed its third year of operation. During this time, the owner sought to
The Karrie Restaurant is located in Portland Oregon. The restaurant has just completed its third year of operation. During this time, the owner sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high quality during the establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. The efforts made by the owner and her staff have proven successful, and her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants. The owner has concluded that, to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales. Owner has the following data on total food and beverage sales for the 3 years of operation.
Can you please use excel:
| INPUTS | OUTPUTS | |||||||||
| Number of Periods of Data Collected = | Period | Forecast = | ||||||||
| Number of Periods in Season = | ||||||||||
| MSE = | MAPE = | |||||||||
| MAD = | LAD = | |||||||||
| OUTPUTS | ||||||||||
| Period | ||||||||||
| Forecast | ||||||||||
| Centered | Seasonal/ | Desesonalized | Absolute | Error | Absolute | |||||
| Period | Value | Moving Av. | Random | Values | Forecast | Error | Error | Squared | % Error | |
| 1 | 242 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 2 | 235 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 3 | 232 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 4 | 178 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 5 | 184 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 6 | 140 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 7 | 145 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 8 | 152 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 9 | 110 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 10 | 130 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 11 | 152 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 12 | 206 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 13 | 263 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 14 | 238 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 15 | 247 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 16 | 193 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 17 | 193 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 18 | 149 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 19 | 157 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 20 | 161 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 21 | 122 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 22 | 130 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 23 | 167 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 24 | 230 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 25 | 282 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 26 | 255 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 27 | 265 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 28 | 205 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 29 | 210 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 30 | 160 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 31 | 166 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 32 | 174 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 33 | 126 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 34 | 148 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 35 | 173 | #DIV/0! | ||||||||
| 36 | 235 | #DIV/0! |
1. Is the Best Model produces in-control forecast errors? Perform the test and discuss the results.
2.Use the Best Model to forecast sales for January of the 4th year.
3.Assume that January sales for the 4th year turned out to be $295,000.
4. What is your forecast error? If this error is large, what can you do to get a more accurate forecast.
| month | sales |
| 1 | 242 |
| 2 | 235 |
| 3 | 232 |
| 4 | 178 |
| 5 | 184 |
| 6 | 140 |
| 7 | 145 |
| 8 | 152 |
| 9 | 110 |
| 10 | 130 |
| 11 | 152 |
| 12 | 206 |
| 13 | 263 |
| 14 | 238 |
| 15 | 247 |
| 16 | 193 |
| 17 | 193 |
| 18 | 149 |
| 19 | 157 |
| 20 | 161 |
| 21 | 122 |
| 22 | 130 |
| 23 | 167 |
| 24 | 230 |
| 25 | 282 |
| 26 | 255 |
| 27 | 265 |
| 28 | 205 |
| 29 | 210 |
| 30 | 160 |
| 31 | 166 |
| 32 | 174 |
| 33 | 126 |
| 34 | 148 |
| 35 | 173 |
| 36 | 235 |
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A Survey Of Mathematics With Applications
Authors: Allen R. Angel, Christine D. Abbott, Dennis Runde
11th Edition
0135740460, 978-0135740460
