The Karrie Restaurant is located in Portland Oregon. The restaurant has just completed its third year of operation. During this time, the owner sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high quality during the establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. The efforts made by the owner and her staff have proven successful, and her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants. The owner has concluded that, to plan better for the growth of the restaurant in the future, she needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales. Owner has the following data on total food and beverage sales for the 3 years of operation. Food and Beverage Sales for the Karrie Restaurant ($1000) Month First Year Second Year Third Year January 242 263 282 February 235 238 255 March 232 247 265 April 178 193 205 May 184 193 210 June 140 149 160 July 145 157 166 August 152 161 174 September 110 122 126 October 130 130 148 November 152 167 173 December 206 230 235 Managerial Report 1) Graph the Time Series and analyze the graph 2) Analyze the data using the 5 Time Series Model and identify the Best Model. 3) An analysis of the seasonality of the data. Indicate the seasonal indexes for each month, and comment on the high and low seasonal months. Do the seasonal indexes make intuitive sense? Discuss. 4) Is the Best Model produces in-control forecast errors? Perform the test and discuss the result 5) Use the Best Model to forecast sales for January of the 4th year. 6) Assume that January sales for the 4th year turned out to be $295,000. What is forecast error? if this error is large, what to do to get a more accurate forecast. 7) Include detailed calculations of analysis and Excel copies in the appendix