The management team of a call center is making some reductions to staff. They must decide between two outbound salespeople, and they plan to make their decision based on who has a higher probability of making sales. They know that in the sales business repeat calls to close a sale are common, so the management team will consider the total success rate of up to four calls. Bert has a record of closing on the first call 70% of the time, with the probability of a sale dropping 10% with each successive call. Riley has a record of closing on the first call 56% of the time, with the probability of a sale dropping 5% with each successive call. If Bert and Riley make their sale on the fourth call to any given client (which is dependent on prior events), what is the probability of a sale?

Based on their results, whom should management let go and whom should they keep?

The table below is constructed to help compute the probabilities dependent on one another for making a sale.

Data from Excel	1st P	2nd P	3rd P	4th P	P
Bert	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4	?
Riley	0.56	0.51	0.46	0.41	?