The market portfolio of an investment bank consists of various securities. One of them is a one-year bond outstanding with a principal of 100. The bond provides a coupon of 5% per year payable annually. The yield on the bond (expressed with continuous compounding) is 2.5%. The risk-free rate is 1.2% for all maturities. The recovery rate is 20%. Defaults can only take place at year end or half-way through each year. Estimate the risk-neutral default rate +