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The material in Topic 6.1 of the module discussed the five steps of Monte Carlo simulation . In this work, the student will solve a

The material in Topic 6.1 of the module discussed the five steps of Monte Carlo simulation. In this work, the student will solve a hypothetical problem applying the aforementioned technique.

Instructions:

  • Using the five steps of Monte Carlo simulation, you are going to model a hypothetical situation for a Mechanic's Shop. Use the data in the following table for the number of maintenance services. You should assume that the data comes from the business.
  • You are going to run a simulation at 10, 30, and 40. Don't forget to include the simulated demand results for each.
  • In the same way, it must include the results of the expected demand.
Daily demand Frequency Probability Cumulative Probability Random Number Intervals
0 15
1 29
2 31
3 43
4 57
5 33
6 40
  • Using your creativity, you are going to give a name and location to the company.
  • Explain each specific step using the Table Modeling a Real Scenario: Monte Carlo Simulation.
Modeling in a Real Scenario: Monte Carlo Simulation (Name of the company)
Step Description
Definition of the problem.
Step 1. Establish the probability distributions for the important input variables.
Step 2. Make a cumulative probability distribution for each variable from the previous step.
Step 3. Establish a range of random numbers for each variable.
Step 4. Generate random numbers.
Step 5. Simulate a series of tests.
Examine and interpret the results.
  • For the estimation of these criteria, you will use the QM for Windows tool or Excel QM.

It must include at least 2 academic sources, formats and cited in accordance with current APA regulations.

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