The modified Golden project resulted in a time of completion of 260 days.However, parallel paths are suspected that could cause issues with probabilities of completion times. After the Golden project was crashed to 250 days, a 270-day target was a concern. You have been asked to crash the modified Golden project from a current 260 days to 250 days such that the probability of exceeding 270 days is minimized. For the Golden project, only one activity may be crashed by a fixed percentage.

(For example, if an activity with time estimates of 10,20,30, for Optimistic, Most Likely, Pessimistic, respectively, was crashed by 10%, then the time estimates would be 9,18,27, for Optimistic, Most Likely, Pessimistic, respectively.)

The activity to be crashed and the minimum probability the crashed Golden project will exceed the target was requested.

Modified GOLDEN Project.

The time estimates for the modified GOLDEN project were collected and presented in the table below consisting of predecessor activities along with the three, time estimates given in days.

GOLDEN Project
Activity	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I
Predecessor Activities	---	---	A	A	B	C,D	D	E	G,H
Optimistic, t1	25	45	28	50	99	118	100	25	12
Most Likely, t2	30	52	38	68	135	123	130	32	18
Pessimistic, t3	59	83	96	104	195	146	190	57	36

.

AON
	A		C		F
			D
					G		I
	B		E		H

Question 19. Which activity would crash the project to exactly 250 days resulting in a minimum probability of exceeding a 270-day completion time? AB C DE F GH I

Question 20. What is the approximate minimum probability of completing the project greater than 270 days (i.e., P[TOC>270]) after the modified Golden project was crashed by only one activity?

(A) 0.55 (B) 0.18 (C) 0.40 (D) 0.22 (E) 0.05