The new academic season is always the busiest time for 'Parchment', a bookstore that sells stationery items. The owner, Anna, takes pride in a special line of notebooks whose front cover is designed by her. The university students look forward to her new collection every academic season. These are always the high-sellers. Having completed SC1x forecasting lessons recently, her son Manuel wanted to put his skills to use, to forecast the demand for these notebooks. He took out last 15 days sales data which is given below:

Day NO of Books sold x_t

1 30

2 38

3 44

4 47

5 42

6 45

7 46

8 55

9 50

10 36

11 46

12 53

13 55

14 56

15 45

Manuel creates a forecast table using a 4-period moving average model. What is the projected forecast sales for Day 16?

Round your answer to the nearest integer.

unanswered

He also creates a forecast table using a simple exponential smoothing model considering

= 0.2. What is the projected forecast sales for Day 16? Consider the forecast for Day 1,x

^

0,1

as 35.

Question 2

9.0 points possible (graded, results hidden)

What is the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the forecast sales using the 4-period moving average model (as calculated in Question 1)?

Round your answer to three decimal places. If your answer is 12.3455, enter 12.346.

unanswered

What is the Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of the forecast sales using the simple exponential smoothing model (as calculated in Question 1)?

Round your answer to three decimal places. If your answer is 12.367%, enter 0.124.

unanswered

Question 3

9.0 points possible (graded, results hidden)

'Parchment' introduced customized engraved fountain pens last month. Anna feels that the sales for this product has been relatively slow. Manuel assesses last 15 days data and notices a promising trend! He decides to create a forecast for this product to get an idea when the sales would reach a breakeven point.

He decided to use the exponential smoothing for level and trend model. He estimated the value ofa

^

15

to be 26 and the trend componentb

^

15

to be 9. Considering the actual sales of Day 16 to bex

16

= 32,

= 0.2 and

= 0.15, what is the projected forecast sales for Day 17?