The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:

YEAR	CASES OF MERLOT WINE
1	282
2	368
3	410
4	468
5	370
6	512
7	422
8	388

Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.30, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of year 8. Use the average demand for years 1 through 3 as your initial forecast for year 4, and then smooth the forecast forward to year 8. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.)

Forecast for 8

%