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The one-year spot rate is r1=2%. Let trT denote the unknown spot rate between years t and t+T in the future. Investors have the following
The one-year spot rate is r1=2%. Let trT denote the unknown spot rate between years t and t+T in the future. Investors have the following expectations. They believe that 1r1 is equally likely to be 2% or 3%, whereas 2r1 will be 3% with probability 0.25 and 5% with probability 0.75. Suppose, the expectations theory of the term structure holds. What are the spot rates r2 and r3?
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