The Problem: In the past 10 years, the ability of pollsters to accurately predict election results has declined. Said another way, the ability of pollsters to collect the optimal inputs in order to identify key voter issues and accurately determine voting choices has declined. Evidence of the decline in accuracy was most clearly observed in the 2016 election victory for president by Donald Trump, though many polls had predicted victory for Hillary Clinton. Polls conducted leading up to the 2020 election for the president, senators and congress across multiple states, by well-known polling organizations, again proved inaccurate, compared to final voter outcomes. Clearly, the ability to accurately measure Americans opinions has diminished over time. And, as political affiliation has taken on a greater impact in opinions/attitudes we have seen growing difficulty among pollsters to provide accurate forecasts of election results.

This assignment has three components: (i) Describe the source(s) of error that has led to the recent inaccuracy of predicted election outcomes among polling organizations; (ii) Identify the steps polling organizations can take to improve the accuracy of their polls/forecasts? (iii) How might you apply the proposed solutions in (ii) above to the survey results your team will collect as a part of your group research project? How will you interpret your teams survey results as being representative of the target population?

There is a 2 page minimum/ 3 page maximum on this assignment.