The second probability to calculate is the chance to miss the deadline of 29 weeks. Follow similar procedure in Step 6 to get the cumulative probability of x=29. To obtain P(X>deadline), subtract the cumulative probability P(X

\fOptim Most likely Pessim Expected Activity Description Pred time (a) time (m) time (b) time Variance Scope Determination 5.833333 0.69 System Analysis A 10 7.833333 0.69 Staff Recruitment A 8 6.166667 0.25 Staff Training B, C 2.166667 0.25 IOnMOOD Hardware Installation D 17 11.33333 2.78 Database Design D 12 9.166667 0.69 Web Interface Design D 7.833333 0.25 Software Testing F. G 4.333333 0.44 System Commissioning E, F, H 5 0.44 Critical path = A-B-D-F-H-I Project mean length = 34.3333 weeks Project variance = 3.2222 Project standard deviation = 1.7951 weeks P(Finish 29 weeks) = 0.0015