TheSixThirtyNinepolling average the day before election day predicts a dead heat: Terwilliger with 49% of the vote and Quimby with 51% of the vote. Assume that 20,000 Springfieldians vote on election day.

1. (a)Model the number of votes for Joe Quimby as a Binomial random variableX. (i) What is a "trial"? What isn?
2. (ii) What does "success" mean? What isp?
3. (b)What is the number of votes that Quimby expects to receive?
4. (c)The results of the election were

Information :Terwillige Votes 10002. Quimby 9998

5.Decide whether the Quimby'ssignificantly underperformedthe forecast, (i) by using the range rule of thumb; .(ii) by calculatingP(X9998)directly.

6.(d)What explains the election result? Consider the model assumptions, parameters, and

7.other sources of discrepancy in your answer. Justify your conclusion.