Question
The stock is launching a new product tomorrow and a trader wishes to exploit this opportunity by holding options. The current stock price is trading
The stock is launching a new product tomorrow and a trader wishes to exploit this opportunity by holding options. The current stock price is trading at $30. The trader following the stock expects the news to cause the volatility over the next three months to be either 10% or 40%. He believes that there is a 30% chance of the first outcome and a 70% chance of the second outcome.
The trader calculates the call prices for three-month options using 10% and 40% volatility. Then using the weighted-average price (from the two prices), the trader creates the implied volatilities. The output table is in the following:
A
Strike price | B
Call Price (calculated with 10% Vol) | C
Call Price (calculated with 40% Vol) | D
Implied Volatility of the Weighted Average Price (of Columns A and B) |
24 | 6.519 | 6.943 | 25.53 |
26 | 4.358 | 5.224 | 23.13 |
28 | 2.341 | 3.765 | 20.77 |
30 | 0.867 | 2.598 | 19.80 |
32 | 0.195 | 1.716 | 20.68 |
34 | 0.025 | 1.087 | 22.67 |
36 | 0.002 | 0.661 | 24.67 |
Would you recommend the trader to use call options or put options or both to exploit the product launch opportunity? Provide the trader with a suggestion and discuss the reasoning behind your suggestion. Discuss the profit/losses he could incur if he follows your suggestion.
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