The table below shows the annual petroleum consumption (measured in British Thermal Units, abbreviated as BTUs) for a sample of residential consumers. A single BTU is the amount of energy it takes to heat 1 pound of water by 1 degree Fahrenheit. These data are usually preliminary (sometimes estimated or forecasted) and likely to be revised the following year. The data are based on monthly estimates and are likely to be revised later that year after final data are published.

Year	Consumption
2012	886
2013	963
2014	1036
2015	1007
2016	878
2017	871
2018	1022
2019	1045
2020	914
2021	929
2022

1. Using the nave approach, what is the forecast for petroleum consumption in 2022?

2. Forecast residential petroleum consumption for 2022 using a 3-year moving average.

3. Calculate the forecast error for 2020 based on the 3-year moving average above.

4. Forecast petroleum consumption for 2022 using exponential smoothing with = 0.3.