2. The US Federal Government is funding COVID-19 vaccine programs in an attempt to accelerate the FDA approval of one or more vaccines as soon as possible. A material consequence for the US Federal Government is to have at least one vaccine approved by the FDA by January 31, 2021.

1. Assuming that any one funded program has a 40% chance of achieving FDA approval by January 31, 2021, how many vaccine programs should be funded to achieve a 95% chance of having at least one vaccine program FDA approved by January 31, 2021?