1. The US Federal Government is funding COVID-19 vaccine programs in an attempt to accelerate the FDA approval of one or more vaccines as soon as possible. A material consequence for the US Federal Government is to have at least one vaccine approved by the FDA by January 31, 202

1. Assuming that any one funded program has a 40% chance of achieving FDA approval by January 31, 2021, how many vaccine programs should be funded to achieve a 95% chance of having at least one vaccine program FDA approved by January 31, 2021?

Assume that both a COVID-19 vaccine and a COVID-19 cure has been created and that the US Federal Government is deciding which of the two medical breakthroughs would be best to sponsor for residents in an impoverished community outside the United States with a $100million package. The $100million package would sponsor 20 million vaccinations or one million doses of the COVID-19 cure. Both the vaccine and the cure require a single dose per patient. In impoverished communities, the probability of contracting COVID-19 in 2021 is estimated to be 20%. The following table includes some important statistics regarding the vaccines and cures efficacy.

2. If the US Federal Government pursues a vaccine-based program, how many lives is the program expected to save?

3. If the US Federal Government pursues a cure-based program, how many lives is the program expected to save?

4. Per $100,000 of spending how many lives do the two programs individually save?

5. Which program, the COVID-19 Vaccination Program or the COVID-19 Cure Program, do you recommend the US Federal Government to pursue?

Event Contracting COVID-19 Given Not Vaccinated Contracting COVID-19 Given Vaccinated Untreated Mortality Rate of COVID-19 in Community Treated (with Cure) Mortality Rate of COVID-19 in Community Probability 20.00% 0.50% 1.00% 0.03%