The values of Alabama building contracts (in millions of dollars) for a 6-month period

are:

Months: 1 2 3 4 5 6

Values: 240 350 230 260 280 320

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

b. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast. Use

= 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts based on MSE?

c. What is the forecast for the next month?