The Zambian government has announced the closure of its common border with Tanzania. On Saturday (May 9) 76 new cases were reported in Nakonde, the border town in question. The president directed that with effect from Monday 11th May 2020; “the Nakonde border will be temporarily closed. There shall be no traffic in and out of Nakonde,” Health Minister Chitalu Chilufya announced at a COVID-19 press briefing on Sunday. The measure is to facilitate the roll-out of targeted interventions. During that time, immigration staff at the border will be trained and retrained on how to safely deal with the entry of persons and goods.

A. As a consultant attached to the World Health Organization, advise the Zambian Government on the importance of risk management concerning COVID 19 situation.

B. Identify four (4) risk sources and particular risks in the temporary closure of the Nakonde Border.

C. Illustrate how Probability Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation are applied during quantitative risk analysis?

D. Briefly explain to the Minister of Health what risk exist about the COVID 19 situation?