There is 5 percent probability of recession, 20 percent probability of a poor economy, 48 percent probability of a normal economy, and 27 percent probability of a boom. A stock has returns of 20.7 percent, 4.3 percent, 12.1 percent and 27.8 percent in these states of the economy, respectively. What is the stock's expected return?

14.17%

15.21%

13.14%

12.04%

5.88%