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there is a 10% chance the economy will enter a recession during the coming year; a 50% chance of a stable economy, and a 40%

there is a 10% chance the economy will enter a recession during the coming year; a 50% chance of a stable economy, and a 40% chance of an economic boom. If there is a recession, units sold will decline by 15% for all years after the first year. If there is an economic boom, units sold will increase by 25% for all years after the first year. What is the overall expected NPV for this project?

Inputs:

Equipment cost

10,000,000.00

Salvage Value

950,000.00

Units Sold (Year 1)

124,000.00

Annual change in units sold (until last year when it declines by 30%)

15%

Sales Price (Year 1)

$35

Inflation Rate

2%

VC per unit (Year 1)

13.50

FC per year (Year 1

2,250,000.00

WACC

14.00%

NWC (Percent of next yr's sales)

24%

Tax Rate

21%

Length of Project

6 years

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