Question
This is a question pertaining to Capital Investment Analysis (Industrial Engineering: Econ & Finance, related). I also attached a document with the entire question (there
This is a question pertaining to Capital Investment Analysis (Industrial Engineering: Econ & Finance, related). I also attached a document with the entire question (there are multiple parts to it). Please help me answer as many parts as possible. I am struggling entirely with the concept of PROJECT OPTIONS and Project Values. Please, please help me at least begin each question, ASAP, the exam is tomorrow and I don't know how to even begin to calculate project values and how to compare project options. The question is as follows:
Firm ABC is considering a new product line. Cost of the plant and equipment is $700. Product line will be viable for 8 years. There are 3 possible market states that will be revealed at the end of the first year of operations:
1) Excellent (Probability = 0.2, FCF in Year 1: 125, Growth Rate: 15%)
2) Average (P=0.6, FCF1: 80, GR: 3%)
3) Poor (P = 0.2, FCF1: 50, GR: 0%)
The cost of capital is 8%.
Q1: What are the values of the project in Year 1 for each market state?
Q2: What is the value of the project at time 0, should the firm invest in the project?
Q3: The company has these project options: [Expansion, Contraction, Liquidation; for each part of E,C,L, there is a description in the attached document you must view first.]
Q3) What are the values of the project with options in Year 1, for each market state? What is the value of the project with options at time 0?
Q4: Delay Option. Suppose that if the firm pays a delay-fee of 100 now, then it could delay investment by 1 year. In the case of delaying the investment by 1 year, the project will be viable for only 7 years after investment. The cash flow structure over the remaining 7 years is identical to that of year 2-8 in the no-delay case. At the end of Year 1, the market state would be known to the firm and the firm could then decide on whether to invest in the project with a normal scale (close $700), an expanded scale (cost $900), a contracted scale ($500), or not to invest at all (cost $0).
Q4a) What is the value of the project with the delay option?
Q4b) What are the optimal decisions by the end of Year 1?
Q5: As an alternative to pay to acquire the delay option. the firm can undertake a market survey to elicit information about the true market state. Based on similar surveys conducted in the past, the reliability of the survey is as follows:
Excellent (Prior Probability: 0.2, Survey Outcome = E: 0.7, A: 0.3, P: 0.0)
Average (Prior Probability: 0.6, Survey Outcome = E: 0.2, A: 0.65, P: 0.15)
Poor (Prior Probability: 0.2, Survey Outcome = E: 0.0, A: 0.3, P: 0.7)
For the project expansion/contraction/liquidation options:
Q5a) What are the values (VS1) for each survey outcome, and what is the value for the project VS0, if the cost of undertaking the survey is 0?
Q5b) What would be the cost of the market survey to make the firm indifferent between undertaking the survey or not?
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