Question
This question is based on the idea of demographic stochasticity that we looked at in relation to the Ebola outbreaks in West Africa. The table
This question is based on the idea of demographic stochasticity that we looked at in relation to the Ebola outbreaks in West Africa. The table below shows 10 different possible social contact chains that could happen in an outbreak. Each chain represents the number of social contacts for a person who could be the first case of viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF) in a newly infected area. For example, the person with ID number 1 had 6 contacts, while person ID 9 had only 1 contact. The columns with pale blue and yellow cells show the potential R0 values for the contacts of each potential primary case. Again, to take #1 as an example, the six contacts of person #1 have personal R0 values of 2,5,1,3,3, and 3.
(a) For each of the 10 possible infection chains work out the total number of cases that could potentially arise from the VHF entering the community via that person.
(b) For each chain of infection calculate the average R0 value of the potential cases infected by each of the 10 initial carriers.
(c) Make a scatter graph with the number of contacts of each of the 10 possible initial cases as the x-variable and the total number of new cases that would arise if they were responsible for introducing VHF as the y-variable (this is the number you calculated for each chain in part (a)).
(d) Fit a trend line to the scatter plot. What is the slope of the fitted line? (give your answer to 1 decimal place) What is your interpretation of the slope of the line?
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