This week you will discuss the Risk Equation Homework Assignment. The goal for this week is to share with each other how you came to understand the important role that numbers and probability play to risk management, as well as discuss the inherently fuzzy nature of predicting the future.

We see tables of numbers that predict average lifespan and some people treat them as rules. Nothing could be further from the truth. They simply represent a statistical likelihood about how long any given person with defined characteristics is "likely" to live. This is one aspect of risk management that is as much art as science. The math calculates likelihoods but the critical thinking determines what should be included in the mathematical analysis.

Discuss the following:

1. What result did you determine for the software testing scenario? What was most challenging about completing that analysis? What additional information did you wish you had? How comfortable were you with making the final decision based on what you calculated?
2. What was the second scenario you analyzed? Why did you pick that scenario? What was most challenging about completing that analysis? What additional information did you wish you had? How comfortable were you with making the final decision based on what you calculated?
3. Discuss the benefits and drawbacks associated with numerically analyzing risk situations and choices.
4. How would you best combine critical thinking and the risk equation approach in your risk management decision making?