This week, youll take the role of our decisionmaker. In this homework, you must answer an important question: Should I Bring an Umbrella?

Read the information below to answer our following homework assignment.

The Facts You are a student on your way to campus for the day. Like you do every morning, you start by checking the weather. Theres no call in the forecast for rain, however, when you look outside your window, the sky is dark and ominous. Before you head out the door this morning, do you bring an umbrella?

Objectives By the end of this exercise, you should be able to: Construct a decision table for a real life scenario Convert the decision table into a decision tree Apply informal writing to decision theory concepts Instructions

PART A: Using the facts and the question above, construct a Decision Matrix to include the following elements: Issue States of Nature (minimum 2) Alternatives (minimum 2) Outcomes (combination of state of nature & alternative in descriptive form)

PART B: After constructing your Decision Matrix in Part A of this Homework Assignment, convert this Decision Matrix to a Decision Tree.

1. Your Issue and all of your listed States of Nature, Alternatives, and Outcomes in Part A must be part of this decision tree. TIP: You can create your decision matrix in many different ways. You may draw the decision tree legibly by hand and scan it for this exercise, or you may use other programs like Microsoft Word, Gliffy, etc., to map this out.

2. After converting your decision matrix to a decision tree, use a different color to draw a line or an arrow to each of the major parts of the decision tree. Please identify and label all of the elements as States of Nature, Alternatives, or Outcomes on your decision tree.

PART C: Finally, tell us what you would choose to do in this situation. Would you take your umbrella based on your findings in your Decision Matrix and Decision Tree?