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Three expected criminals are equally likely to be guilty. The test can detect a lie by A with probability 0.8, a lie by B with
Three expected criminals are equally likely to be guilty. The test can detect a lie by A with probability 0.8, a lie by B with probability 0.75, and a lie by C with probability 0.9. But the tests can also fail by suggesting that an honest person is lying. In this story, if A is innocent the test will indicate that A is innocent, and if B is innocent the test will say B is innocent. But if C is innocent, there is a 0.27 probability the tester will indicate that C is lying.
- (a) What is the probability that exactly two of the tests report that someone is lying?
- (b) What is the probability that the test says B is lying if it also says C is lying?
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