To create a delta-neutral portfolio, the SIT fund has sold 10,000 at-the-money (ATM) put options on Epsilon stock with when the shares were trading at $100. The risk manager from SIT uses the Black-Scholes model to value all option exposures. The current price of the shares is $90. The annualized standard deviation of Epsilon stock returns is 40% and the option expires in six months. If the risk-free rate is 2%, approximately, what is the likelihood that this option will be exercised? (a) 0.7975 (b) 0.6839 (c) 0.3161 (d) 0.2025